How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Superiority Method

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly forecasts.

The statistical methods described in this set of articles will help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.

In this article we will be describing the well known Superiority method. The Superiority method is based on goal difference (superiority) for both teams in a fixture over the past set number of games.

Here are the basic rules?

Get goal difference for each team. This could be either;

a) All home games only for the home team and all away games only for the away team over the last N games.

Or

b) All games for each team over the last N games.

Next we need to count each occurrence of a particular goal difference. We need to do this for both the home side and the away side. We create a table which holds the counts and in our case we have chosen to have thirteen rows in our table that represent the following goal differences:

INDEX GOAL DIFF
1..........>-5
2..........-5
3..........-4
4..........-3
5..........-2
6..........-1
7..........0
8..........1
9..........2
10........3
11........4
12........5
13........>5

So for our N matches we will add one to the content of each index whenever that goal difference is encountered. This may be a little confusing so let?s look at an example.

Arsenal v West Ham

ARSENAL 2 -1 0 0 3 -2 1 1 1 5 1 0 0 -2
WEST HAM 0 0 -2 -3 -1 3 1 -1 -1 2 1 3 0 1

The above shows the goal differences for the last fourteen matches for Arsenal and West Ham, now let?s add these to our goal difference table:

INDEX GOAL DIFF ARSENAL WEST HAM
1..........>-5.......0..........0
2..........-5.........0..........0
3..........-4.........0..........0
4..........-3.........0..........1
5..........-2.........2..........1
6..........-1.........1..........3
7..........0..........4..........3
8..........1..........4..........3
9..........2..........1..........1
10........3..........1..........2
11........4..........0..........0
12........5..........1..........0
13........>5........0..........0

Now each home team array count is added to the opposite array count for the away side. So, the home teams? array index 13 is added to the away teams? array index 1, the home teams array index 12 is added to the away teams array index 2, etc. In our example this gives us;

INDEX GOAL DIFF COMBINED
1..........>-5.........0
2..........-5...........0
3..........-4...........0
4..........-3...........2
5..........-2...........3
6..........-1...........4
7..........0............7
8..........1............7
9..........2............2
10........3............2
11........4............0
12........5............1
13........>5..........0

The forecast can now be determined. If we assume that a draw is represented by array index 7 then array indexes 1 to 6 represent an away win, and array indexes 8 to 13 represent a home win. So, the home win counts are totalled and so are the away win counts. In our example this gives us;

AWAY WIN9
DRAW7
HOME WIN12

The total number of counts = 28
Therefore,
Away win possibility = 32%
Draw possibility = 25%
Home win possibility = 43%.

Now it?s your turn?

Of course you may choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may come up with better values to use.

If you have the necessary skills you could go away and build your own spreadsheet of data or even write a piece of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Superiority method to your data. Or, if you?re lazy like me, you could grab some free software that already does this for you. If this last option is for you then visit 1X2Monster where you can download a FREE copy of the Footyforecast 2.0 software which utilises all of the statistical methods described in this series of articles. You will also be able to download FREE weekly database updates for your software, how cool is that?

Here is a list of all the articles in this series?

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Rateform Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Win Draw Loss Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Score Prediction Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Superiority Method

Malcolm Nossiter is the owner of 1x2monster.com and footyforecast.com. He has been providing hundreds of 1X2 tips every week since 1999. Please visit 1x2monster.com for a fountain of information on soccer betting.

Soccer Training Games And Drill Conditions

Small sided games and soccer drills can be varied greatly by adding a few extra rules to condition the players. Conditions can be used to make the drills harder or easier depending what you want the outcome to be.

However, if you want to condition your players differently it's important to have a variety of rules that you can implement.

Here are five of the ten variations we prefer that you can use in your next training session.

One Touch

Quite simply, players only have one touch. Do not allow your players to trap the ball or control then pass. They must play the ball first time.

This means they must be constantly aware of where their team mates are, move their feet quickly to get in line with the ball flight and they must decide where they are going to play the ball before they receive it.

This rule forces players to think quickly and anticipate the ball. When using this condition reiterate the key coaching points of thinking ahead, sound decision making, head up & vision, quick movement and communication.

Two Touch

Here the condition limits the players to a maximum of two touches.

A player is allowed to control the ball with their first touch but they must play the ball with their second touch.

The extra time that they are allowed on the ball, even though brief, allows them to evaluate their options and focus more on anticipation. Supporting team mates also need to think ahead and use good movement to create space and be available for the ball.

When using this condition, specifically watch and give feedback on the player's first touch as this will determine to a great extent what options they have thereafter.

Three (or a Specified Number of Touches)

Giving players more touches doesn't necessarily make the games or drills easier. For example, we might condition our players to five touches. That means they must be able to control the ball, get their head up, look for space, dribble, shield and bring other players into the game.

Ball Height - Below Knee Height

I like the quote from Brian Clough..."If God had meant football to be played in the air he'd have put goals in the sky!" This condition focuses the players to keep the ball on the ground.

That means they must look for passing channels along the floor and minimizes the "hoof" football that is so prevalent!

Coach players on creating space, good movement and offering support.

Ball Height - Head Height

Allowing the players a little more flexibility and some more ball maneuverability allows them to lift the ball but still discourages the "hoof" or "long ball all the time" soccer.

Again, creating space, movement and offering support should all be key components when imposing this condition.

Claim your complimentary copy of the 'Soccer Coaching Guide' provided by Junior Soccer Coach and receive hints, tips and techniques to improve your team?s performance AND your expertise as a coach. Grab your copy now, visit the website today? The Junior Soccer Coach - Soccer Coaching Guide

Things To Do At An Under 7 Soccer Training

Young soccer coaching is a challenging task and the coach must plan out the training session based on the age group of the players. For example, if he has to coach players under the age of seven, he must know the various things to do at an under 7 soccer training.

The coach will have to use special techniques to train them to shoot and score more goals. Players under the age of seven look for fun in the training session, so you must plan out accordingly.

Let them practice various drills in which they could score more goals. The more they will score goals, the more they will enjoy the training session.

Chasing The Ball

Kids love chasing the ball and there are their kind of joy just in chasing the ball and get a chance to touch and kick the same. They take it as a challenge that they have to chase and touch the ball.

The Longer Sessions

The U7 coaches should design the training session to run shorter period of time. the longer training sessions for the kids at this age will bring no good results. Keep it short - Thirty to forty minutes.

Another benefit of the shorter training session is that this way, the excitement of the soccer experience then remains fresh in the minds of the kids. They would like to come back.

Focus On Scoring Goals

You can expect the players less than seven years of age to shoot the ball. The maximum they can do is kicking. At this stage, the best way to keep their interest in soccer is to let them practice drills and games that involve scoring the goals.

There is no greater pleasure for a kid in soccer than scoring a goal. Let them focus on scoring the goals, and well, that is what the objective of the game is.

Specific Goals And Objectives For Players Under Seven

The goals and objectives of a soccer training session for players under the age of seven must be specific to their age. It is very important for the coach to develop a list of goals and objectives for each age group.

Overall, there is a wide range of specific things to do at an under 7-soccer training, and if the coach is looking for productive results from their training sessions, they must keep in mind the above things.

Andre Botelho is a recognized authority on the subject of things to do at an under 7 soccer training. His web site, Youth Soccer Drills, provides a wealth of informative soccer articles, resources and tips for soccer coaches, parents and players.