How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence Method

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly forecasts.

The statistical methods described in this set of articles will help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.

In this article we will be describing the well known Simple Sequence method. The Simple Sequence method is not just a single method, there are many ways of devising a simple sequence method, and you could probably devise one of your own. The way the Simple Sequence method is implemented in the Footyforecast 2.0 software and on the 1X2Monster website is to use a weighting factor on each of a series of games.

Here are the basic rules...

A number of matches are used to look back at from the forecast date. So let's say our team has the following results (most recent on the right hand side):

W D L L W

This would give them the following points: 3 + 1 + 0 + 0 + 3 = 7

Now to take into account current form each is given a weighting factor, so the oldest match is multiplied by 1 up to the most recent match being multiplied by 5. Of course this will vary depending upon the number of matches you use, but for this example it gives us the following:

3*1 + 1*2 + 0*3 + 0*4 + 3*5 = 20 points

Now let's say the away team playing against the team above have the following record:

W W D D D

They will have: 3*1 + 3*2 + 1*3 + 1*4 + 1*5 = 21 points.

The points difference HOME v AWAY = 20 - 21 = -1.

Now, depending how you classify this it could represent an away win, i.e. all matches below a points difference of 0 = away win, or it could be classed as a draw.

Let's look at a simple example...

For our example we will use the last ten games played for each team. That's the last ten home games for the home side, and the last ten away games for the away side. The match is between Middlesbrough and Bolton Wanderers in the English Premiership played on 20th Jan 2007.

Middlesbrough

L L W W W D L D W W

This gives 0*1 + 0*2 + 3*3 + 3*4 + 3*5 + 1*6 + 0*7 + 1*8 + 3*9 + 3*10

This equals 0+0+9+12+15+6+0+8+27+30 = 107

Bolton

L W W W D L L W W L

This gives 0*1 + 3*2 + 3*3 + 3*4 + 1*5 + 0*6 + 0*7 + 3*8 + 3*9 + 0*10

this equals 0+6+9+12+5+0+0+24+27+0 = 83

Therefore the difference is

107 - 83 = +24

This could be determined as a home win but depending on your chosen threshold levels could be classed as a draw.

Now it's your turn...

Of course you may choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may come up with better values to use. You may also choose to use all home and away games played by each team in your calculations instead of just home games for the home team and away games for the away team. You may choose to have different thresholds than those shown above. You may also find it beneficial to plot actual results against the Simple Sequence method predictions to see how many actual draws fall in the away win, draw, and home win prediction zones.

If you have the necessary skills you could go away and build your own spreadsheet of data or even write a piece of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Simple Sequence method to your data. Or, if you're lazy like me, you could grab some free software that already does this for you. If this last option is for you then visit 1X2Monster where you can download a FREE copy of the Footyforecast 2.0 software which utilises all of the statistical methods described in this series of articles. You will also be able to download FREE weekly database updates for your software, how cool is that?

Here is a list of all the articles in this series...

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Rateform Method How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Win Draw Loss Method How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence Method How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Score Prediction Method How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Superiority Method

Malcolm Nossiter is the owner of 1x2monster.com and footyforecast.com. He has been providing hundreds of 1X2 tips every week since 1999. Please visit 1x2monster.com for a fountain of information on soccer betting.

Teaching Youth Soccer - Fouls And Penalties

When it comes to teaching youth soccer, it is very important for the coach to teach the players about various fouls and the consequent penalties so that they could avoid the same and save their team from getting into problems.

Yellow Card And Red Card

Younger players can easily avoid most of the penalties if they keep their hands away from ball. In soccer, it is not the hand, but the feet that the players have to use. However, you must teach the young players that it is not just touching the ball from hand that can result in penalty, but pushing, tripping or holding the other players will certainly bring penalties.

There are some malicious players in almost every soccer team and when it is about young players, it is very difficult to have a malicious free team. Such players intentionally foul on their opponent players, but the coach must teach them that if they do so, they will get a warning in the form of a ?yellow card?.

If the player repeats the same behavior again, he is ?rewarded? with a red card and is taken out from the field and from the game. A player with red card is not replaced, but the soccer game continues.

Handball

Handball is the term that is used when a player tries to touch the ball with hands in order to get better control of the ball. It does not really matter whether the players do this intentionally or unintentionally ? handball will certainly result in penalty.

The Offside Player

When a player dribble the ball, and dribbling he gets nearer to the goal line of the opponent team than one defensive player and the goalkeeper, the player is offside. The coach must train the players of their team regarding all these little things that may result in penalties.

However, the offside rule is not applicable when it comes to goal kicks, throw-in's or corner kicks. The main objective of the offside rule is just to stop an offensive player from ?camping-out? at the goal awaiting passes.

Other Fouls

There can be various other fouls as well, such as pushing, kicking, striking, holding and charging into an opponent. However, these things may turn into penalties only if the players do the same intentionally. If it was not intentionally, there will be no penalties.

Teaching youth soccer is a challenging job, and the coach needs to train his players from all aspects. Andre Botelho is a recognized authority on the subject of teaching youth soccer. His web site, Youth Soccer Drills, provides a wealth of informative soccer articles, resources and tips for soccer coaches, parents and players.

Lessons in Global Leadership: From the Soccer Field

Business leaders tasked with building international teams as part of their global expansion program should learn how its done on the soccer field. Where once national squads considered only domestic talent, many teams are increasingly becoming multinational. Even the captains are foreign. Here is an outsiders view on soccer and international leadership.

Zudig the Grand Master, is preparing his students for a years internship on planet Earth to learn about our ways. Todays lesson is about international leadership. Xandi, a bright but rebellious leadership student challenges Zudig. Eavesdropping on the conversation, we hear.

Xandi: Hmmm. So how do they celebrate winning?

Zudig: Oh, that half of the amphitheatre with the same colors as the man whos just put the leather globoid into the net, jump up and down, take off their top, jump on their heads, and wave arms about, make thrusting movements and then sit back down.

Xandi. What, just like those players in red and white have done?

Zudig. Thats right Xandi. Theyre from Zod.

Xandi. So why do they do that Zudig?

Zudig. Because the leader of the Zod team has successfully inspired them to score a win over Deng, the players in blue.

Xandi: Ah! I see. So the captain of the Zod team is that man over there, sitting down, not even playing hes the inspiration of it all?

Zudig:Thats right.

Xandi: But hes not even from Zod he has a Deng name! Why he is inspiring his players to play against the Dengs?

Zudig: Because that crowd over there with their faces painted the same color as the team from Zod have chosen him, and the players are happy to be led by such a leader.

Xandi: But the players are not even from Zod. Some are from Zupit, two are from Engis, three are from Bidu and the rest are from Midon!

Zudig: Yep. He has chosen his international team well, all experienced players who know the tactics of the other side. For that, he has rewarded them well, has inspired them to achieve great things, and knows they will deliver great results.

Xandi: OK, so let me get this. This crowd from Zod, who has just spend a whole day traveling to Midon, which is not even the home of the Dengs, have their faces painted, are jumping up and down, taking off their tops, jumping on their head, waving their arms about, making thrusting movements, are happy? And theyre happy because the team in red and white, who represent Zod, but are not from Zod but from Deng, Zupit, Engis, Bidu and Midon have kicked a leather globoid into a fishing net, have scored a win over the Dengs, - and all this is inspired by that man sitting down over there, who is not from Zod either, but from Deng, but is elected by the crowds with painted faces from Zod to represent them, because he is the man who can provide inspirational leadership to the men from Deng, Zupit, Engis, Bidu and Midon, who are very happy to play for Zod and score a win over Deng, because they have a great inspirational leader, and have been well motivated and rewarded?

Zudig: Uuuuuh! Yep, thats right. Its called international leadership building the right teams to achieve international success.

Xandi: That must be some leadership. Look. Hes even inspired them to kiss that metal cup. Dont they normally drink from cups?

Zudig: Youre right. But thats called sweet smell of success. Any more questions Xandi?

Xandi: Er, yes. In yesterdays lesson about commerce, you talked to us about how earthlings sell their products and services to each other. You told us that those companies that succeeded were those that achieved an international mindset, right?
Zudig: Yes, so whats the point Xandi?

Xandi: Well, I dont understand. If they achieve this level of success when kicking leather globoids around the pitch, and thats how the onlookers cheer them on, then why are leaders and shareholders not more open to building international teams? Surely, brand to the company is just as important as the national flags that are waved by spectators?
Zudig: Thats right.

Xandi: And surely, the teams that work to build that brand will best come from the markets they are selling into right? And surely, business leaders would by definition be leaders from other countries, experienced in managing international teams? So, why doesnt it happen more often? Better awareness of international markets equals better international performance? I rest my case!

Zudig the Grand Master, is preparing his students for a years internship on planet Earth to learn about our ways. Todays lesson is about international leadership. Xandi, a bright but rebellious leadership student challenges Zudig. Eavesdropping on the conversation, we hear.

Xandi: Hmmm. So how do they celebrate winning?

Zudig: Oh, that half of the amphitheatre with the same colors as the man whos just put the leather globoid into the net, jump up and down, take off their top, jump on their heads, and wave arms about, make thrusting movements and then sit back down.

Xandi. What, just like those players in red and white have done?

Zudig. Thats right Xandi. Theyre from Zod.

Xandi. So why do they do that Zudig?

Zudig. Because the leader of the Zod team has successfully inspired them to score a win over Deng, the players in blue.

Xandi: Ah! I see. So the captain of the Zod team is that man over there, sitting down, not even playing hes the inspiration of it all?

Zudig:Thats right.

Xandi: But hes not even from Zod he has a Deng name! Why he is inspiring his players to play against the Dengs?

Zudig: Because that crowd over there with their faces painted the same color as the team from Zod have chosen him, and the players are happy to be led by such a leader.

Xandi: But the players are not even from Zod. Some are from Zupit, two are from Engis, three are from Bidu and the rest are from Midon!

Zudig: Yep. He has chosen his international team well, all experienced players who know the tactics of the other side. For that, he has rewarded them well, has inspired them to achieve great things, and knows they will deliver great results.

Xandi: OK, so let me get this. This crowd from Zod, who has just spend a whole day traveling to Midon, which is not even the home of the Dengs, have their faces painted, are jumping up and down, taking off their tops, jumping on their head, waving their arms about, making thrusting movements, are happy? And theyre happy because the team in red and white, who represent Zod, but are not from Zod but from Deng, Zupit, Engis, Bidu and Midon have kicked a leather globoid into a fishing net, have scored a win over the Dengs, - and all this is inspired by that man sitting down over there, who is not from Zod either, but from Deng, but is elected by the crowds with painted faces from Zod to represent them, because he is the man who can provide inspirational leadership to the men from Deng, Zupit, Engis, Bidu and Midon, who are very happy to play for Zod and score a win over Deng, because they have a great inspirational leader, and have been well motivated and rewarded?

Zudig: Uuuuuh! Yep, thats right. Its called international leadership building the right teams to achieve international success.

Xandi: That must be some leadership. Look. Hes even inspired them to kiss that metal cup. Dont they normally drink from cups?

Zudig: Youre right. But thats called sweet smell of success. Any more questions Xandi?

Xandi: Er, yes. In yesterdays lesson about commerce, you talked to us about how earthlings sell their products and services to each other. You told us that those companies that succeeded were those that achieved an international mindset, right?
Zudig: Yes, so whats the point Xandi?

Xandi: Well, I dont understand. If they achieve this level of success when kicking leather globoids around the pitch, and thats how the onlookers cheer them on, then why are leaders and shareholders not more open to building international teams? Surely, brand to the company is just as important as the national flags that are waved by spectators?
Zudig: Thats right.

Xandi: And surely, the teams that work to build that brand will best come from the markets they are selling into right? And surely, business leaders would by definition be leaders from other countries, experienced in managing international teams? So, why doesnt it happen more often? Better awareness of international markets equals better international performance? I rest my case!

Trevor J. O'Hara, is the founder and president of Renarc, a consultancy that specializes in helping firms with international expansion. O'Hara is a seasoned internationalist, having lived and worked internationally for the last twenty years. Educated in Dublin, Oxford, Paris and Berlin, and with fluency in German, French and Spanish, O'Hara now speaks and writes internationally on how to achieve global success.