Tuesday, March 2, 2010

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence Method

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How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly forecasts.

The statistical methods described in this set of articles will help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.

In this article we will be describing the well known Simple Sequence method. The Simple Sequence method is not just a single method, there are many ways of devising a simple sequence method, and you could probably devise one of your own. The way the Simple Sequence method is implemented in the Footyforecast 2.0 software and on the 1X2Monster website is to use a weighting factor on each of a series of games.

Here are the basic rules...

A number of matches are used to look back at from the forecast date. So let's say our team has the following results (most recent on the right hand side):

W D L L W

This would give them the following points: 3 + 1 + 0 + 0 + 3 = 7

Now to take into account current form each is given a weighting factor, so the oldest match is multiplied by 1 up to the most recent match being multiplied by 5. Of course this will vary depending upon the number of matches you use, but for this example it gives us the following:

3*1 + 1*2 + 0*3 + 0*4 + 3*5 = 20 points

Now let's say the away team playing against the team above have the following record:

W W D D D

They will have: 3*1 + 3*2 + 1*3 + 1*4 + 1*5 = 21 points.

The points difference HOME v AWAY = 20 - 21 = -1.

Now, depending how you classify this it could represent an away win, i.e. all matches below a points difference of 0 = away win, or it could be classed as a draw.

Let's look at a simple example...

For our example we will use the last ten games played for each team. That's the last ten home games for the home side, and the last ten away games for the away side. The match is between Middlesbrough and Bolton Wanderers in the English Premiership played on 20th Jan 2007.

Middlesbrough

L L W W W D L D W W

This gives 0*1 + 0*2 + 3*3 + 3*4 + 3*5 + 1*6 + 0*7 + 1*8 + 3*9 + 3*10

This equals 0+0+9+12+15+6+0+8+27+30 = 107

Bolton

L W W W D L L W W L

This gives 0*1 + 3*2 + 3*3 + 3*4 + 1*5 + 0*6 + 0*7 + 3*8 + 3*9 + 0*10

this equals 0+6+9+12+5+0+0+24+27+0 = 83

Therefore the difference is

107 - 83 = +24

This could be determined as a home win but depending on your chosen threshold levels could be classed as a draw.

Now it's your turn...

Of course you may choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may come up with better values to use. You may also choose to use all home and away games played by each team in your calculations instead of just home games for the home team and away games for the away team. You may choose to have different thresholds than those shown above. You may also find it beneficial to plot actual results against the Simple Sequence method predictions to see how many actual draws fall in the away win, draw, and home win prediction zones.

If you have the necessary skills you could go away and build your own spreadsheet of data or even write a piece of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Simple Sequence method to your data. Or, if you're lazy like me, you could grab some free software that already does this for you. If this last option is for you then visit 1X2Monster where you can download a FREE copy of the Footyforecast 2.0 software which utilises all of the statistical methods described in this series of articles. You will also be able to download FREE weekly database updates for your software, how cool is that?

Here is a list of all the articles in this series...

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Rateform Method How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Win Draw Loss Method How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence Method How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Score Prediction Method How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Superiority Method

Malcolm Nossiter is the owner of 1x2monster.com and footyforecast.com. He has been providing hundreds of 1X2 tips every week since 1999. Please visit 1x2monster.com for a fountain of information on soccer betting.

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Wednesday, November 11, 2009

English Soccer

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?Association Football? is the game that originated in England. Thus it holds an important position in English national life. English soccer is generally referred to as ?Football? or ?Association football?. As football is a speedy and highly competitive game so it became popular in less time. Soon it became the preferred choice of international tycoons where they wanted to endow the money. In England this game is not just a spectator sport but it also holds an attractive place among inhabitants and thus became a game of mass participation in a wide variety of form.

England had first used the term ?football? for the game. The first international football match that was played by the England national football team was against Scotland in 1872 at Hampden Park in Glasgow and they won their first world cup in 1966. In England the kicking ball games has been illustrated since 1280. It has been researched that team football games has being played in English Schools since 1581. The thrust of these games was to coalesce English Public School and University football games.

The first modern game was played in London in 1863.The game was associated by the oldest football association in the world ? ?English Football Association?.

It has been traced out that in ancient time Greeks and Romans developed a pastime ?Harpastum? that was a combination of Association football and Rugby football. Then with the change of time there came drastic change in the game also.

The world?s oldest competition, the FA cup and the first ever soccer league was founded in England in 1872 and 1888 respectively. Therefore England is said to be the home of the game of football. After the establishment of soccer league, many other leagues have also been founded here with a dream of rising up to the top one day with their efforts. The soccer league is currently being divided into three divisions named the Football League championship, Football League one and Football League two.

The English football competition includes the FA cup and the League cup. The FA cup is the oldest and respectable national cup competition in the world. Although many other competitions are also targeted yet these are the most important among them. The winner of these competitions holds an important position in soccer game field. The winners are considered to be qualified for the UEFA cup.

The League cup, also known as ?the Carling Cup? is the other major cup competition. Then there are many other competition held at different level as the Football league Trophy, the FA Trophy, the FA vase, FA Amateur cup, the FA Sunday Cup and many more. Clubs that give their best performance in these FA cup or League Cup, are considered to be qualified to participate in various UEFA organized competitions.

The women?s football game has also got the initiative here. Although these types of matches are recorded since a long time but the serious attention is being paid on these matches in the recent years only.

English Soccer is a well-known and most popular game amongst people that has achieved global fame and reputation in nick of time. This prestige has been boomed exponentially and the influence of the game is growing continuously. Seeing the popularity of the game it can be concluded that in the coming years the Soccer game will attain the new heights in the field of sports.

Alan Gibson

President

www.NipsWorld.co.uk

Alan Gibson is currently the sole owner of nipsworld.co.uk, a cheap quality source for sports equipment. He also specializes in a variety of English soccer memorabilia and uk football kit.

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Thursday, January 15, 2009

Soccer Camps Go Global - Language Immersion Travel Camps Expand the World - View of Young Players

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In the past twenty-five years, soccer has become the most popular youth sport in North America. Many of these young players have carried their love of the sport into adulthood, resulting in the debut of Major League Soccer, America?s first professional soccer league, in 1996.

Youth and professional soccer in the U.S. continue to grow more popular and more competitive, increasing the demand for specialized soccer training programs. Many of these programs offer training abroad as a way to tap into the fiercely competitive international soccer scene. The best of these soccer camps offer more than world-class soccer training. They foster cultural diversity, maturity, and independence in young soccer players.

Unique experience for young soccer players

Soccer camps have become available in countries around the world. Locations like Spain, France, China, Brazil, Greece, Holland, Italy and Germany have opened their doors to American soccer players. An international soccer program has recently opened in Israel as well. These international camps combine professional soccer training with a full-immersion language experience.

Camps can range from 2 weeks to several months. Young soccer players can live and train under constant supervision while learning to appreciate the unique culture of their host country.

Security: A must for travel abroad programs

If you are considering an international soccer camp for your child, safety should be a big concern. A good international soccer camp will have a clear security plan in place. In Israel, for example, EduKick students will train in safety at Kannot Youth Village, a secure, gated, educational and agricultural youth facility. Professional security will be provided 24/7 and accompany the players on all outings.

Full-immersion language instruction

The time young players spend at camp should be more than a vacation. An important part of the soccer experience abroad is learning foreign languages. Hearing and speaking another language constantly is the best way for your child to gain bi-lingual fluency. Bi-lingual instructors, competition with foreign teams, and structured language classes are integral parts of the EduKick experience.

World-class soccer training

Of course, the ultimate goal of a soccer training camp is top-notch soccer training. Look for highly-educated, experienced coaches with coaching credentials. The best coaches have experience playing at the professional level also.

The international field is highly competitive, offering a level of training that is unmatched in the U.S. When choosing an international soccer camp for your child you should accept no less than the best in soccer coaching. Look for international soccer training that focuses on strength and conditioning, technical precision, tactical development and sports psychology.

Enriching the lives of young soccer players

EduKick founders, Joseph Bilotta and Corey Zimmerman, traveled to Europe with their soccer team mates as teenagers, inspiring them to open soccer training camps all over the world as adults.

Remembering their travel abroad experience, Bilotta said, ?I remember feeling a sense of confidence upon returning home, I knew that I was wiser and it made me feel special."

EduKick international soccer training can have the same impact on the life of your child. Visit EduKick's Website today to find the perfect international soccer camp for your young player.

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Thursday, October 30, 2008

The Rules Of Soccer-Offside--A Primer For Coaches-Fans-And Players

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Penalty kicks aside, soccer?s offside rule may produce more frustration for fans and players alike than all the other rules combined. But its purpose is simple, and taking a few moments to understand it may do more to reduce a soccer fan's blood pressure than anything short of bypass surgery.

Of course, understanding won't change a single call on the field. But before screaming at the referee, it might help to understand what all the fuss is really about.

The Purpose of the Offside Rule

Perception of Coaches, Fans, and Players: The Main Purpose of the Offside Rule is to give the officials an excuse to take away any goal our team scores.

A Secondary Purpose of the rule is to let the officials give the other team a breakaway, and let them score whenever they pass the ball behind our defenders.

Reality Check:

Officials do not like to disallow goals. They realize how hard each team works for any goal it scores, and will disallow a goal when a team scores by violating the rules. In addition, the Referee does not really care which team wins.

The Real Reason for the Offside Rule

The purpose of the Offside Rule is the same in Soccer as it is in hockey ? to prevent ?cherry-picking? by a player who camps in front of the other team?s goal, perhaps hoping for a long pass so he doesn?t have to move around very much. Without the Offside Rule, Soccer would be a large field game of ping pong, filled with long kicks and alternating mad scrambles from one end of the field to the other. By preventing any ?offside? player from participating in the game, the rule puts a premium on dribbling and passing, rather than long kicks. This promotes teamwork, which, in turn, encourages quick switching from one side of the field to the other, and compresses the action to a smaller area of the field ? usually about 30 or 40 yards long. The end result is that all the players stay closer to the action, and everyone has a better chance of participating in the game.

The Offside Rule:

A player in an offside position is only penalized if, at the moment the ball touches or is played by one of his team, he is, in the opinion of the referee, involved in active play by interfering with play, or interfering with an opponent, or gaining an advantage by being in that position.

?Offside Position?

Perception of Coaches, Fans, and Players: A player is ?Offside? whenever he gets past our defenders. The officials will not notice this, however, unless we bring it to their attention by screaming at them.

Reality Check:

The rule is a bit more complicated than this...but there is at least one official watching the offside line at any given time. However, occasionally the Referee?s attention is on the contest for the ball, instead of the official watching the offside line, which sometimes results in a late whistle.

The ?Offside Position?:

Law 11 states that a player is in an ?offside position? whenever ?he is nearer to his opponent?s goal than both the ball and the second last opponent,? unless ?he is in his own half of the field of play.? Put more simply:

? Nobody can be ?offside? in his own half of the field.

? Nobody can be ?offside? if even with, or behind the ball.

? Nobody can be ?offside? if even with, or behind two or more opponents.

In addition, there are three major exceptions to the offside rule. Anyone receiving a ball directly from a throw-in, a corner kick, or a goal kick, cannot be ?offside.? So, if Sally receives the ball directly from her teammate?s throw-in, it doesn?t matter if she is in an offside position. The fact that it was a throw-in means that the play was not offside. However, if she flicks the ball along to Jane, who is even further downfield than Sally was, Jane can be offside, since she received the ball from Sally, rather than from the throw-in. The same holds true for corner kicks and goal kicks, as well. If the ball comes directly from the restart, the play cannot be offside; but once the first player receives the ball, the ?offside? rule comes back into play.

?Involved in Active Play?

Perception of Coaches, Fans, and Players: Referees often use the phrase ?not involved in the play? to avoid admitting they missed an offside call. If the players on the other team were not ?involved in active play,? they would not be on the field, they would be on the sidelines.

Reality Check:

A good referee tries to stop the game only when necessary ? usually, only for a serious injury, or when one team would otherwise gain an advantage by a violation of the rules.

Contrary to popular misconceptions, it does not violate the rules merely for a player to be in an offside position. The violation comes only when an ?offside? player becomes involved in the play. So the referee ? or the assistant referee on the sidelines ? who allows play to continue even if everyone can see a player well beyond the offside line is probably not missing anything. Rather, they are applying the rule correctly, by letting play continue until the player in the ?offside position? becomes ?offside? by getting involved in the play.

?Involved in Active Play?

There are three ? and only three ? situations where someone in an offside position is penalized for being ?offside.? All of them, however, require participating in play from an offside position ? or, in the wording of the rule, becoming ?involved in active play?in one of three ways:

? Interfering with play

? Interfering with an opponent, or

? Gaining an advantage by being in an offside position.

The easiest example of ?offside? comes when an offside player receives a pass from a teammate. In this case, he is directly ?interfering with play? because he got the ball. Other examples of the same principle apply this same logic, but seek to spare the players a few steps, or the coaches and fans a few heart attacks. So, if one or more attackers is trapped offside and running to play the ball, the play will be ?offside.? (Some sadistic or mischievous assistant referees may prefer to wait until the player actually touches the ball in order to raise the flag. This is not, strictly speaking, necessary; but it is not incorrect for them to do so, either...providing some incentive, however meager, to be nice to them). On the other hand, if an offside player removes himself from the play ? pulling up, for example, in order to let an onside teammate collect the ball ? an alert official will allow play to continue. And if the ball is going directly to the keeper, the officials will usually let the players keep playing.

While it is not an offense to be in an offside position, a player who never touches the ball may nevertheless affect play in such a way as to be penalized for being offside. The offside player who runs between an opponent and the ball, for example ? or one who screens the goalkeeper from a shot, or interferes with the keeper?s ability to jump for, or collect the ball ? violates the offside rule by participating in the play. But this sort of participation does not come from touching the ball. Rather, it comes from interfering with an opponent?s chance to play the ball. In this case, once the assistant referee sees the participation, the appropriate response is to raise the flag. But, if the offside player pulls up, steps to the side, or clearly indicates that he is removing himself from the moment?s active play, the alert official will simply allow play to continue.

Among the trickiest things to spot ? either as a spectator or an official ? is the player who exploits an offside position to gain an unfair advantage. This does not mean that the player is ?gaining an advantage? by avoiding some extra running on a hot day, however. Instead, it means that the player is taking advantage of his positioning to exploit a lucky deflection, or a defensive mistake. So, if an offside player is standing to the side of the goal when his teammate takes a shot ? but does not otherwise interfere with play or inhibit the keeper?s chance to make the save ? then he is not offside...and the officials will count the goal. But if the ball rebounds, either from the keeper or the goalpost, and the offside player bangs the rebound home ? the play is offside, and the goal will not count, because the player is now gaining an advantage from the offside position.

?The Moment the Ball is Played....?

Perception of Coaches, Fans, and Players:

The referees never get the offside call right, and have a hard time making up their minds. That?s why their flags are often late. And that?s why they sometimes raise the offside flag even when the players are clearly onside.

Reality Check

The Offside rule is the source of more controversy than any other rule in soccer ? and for good reason: it?s pretty complicated. In addition, there are at least two critical moments of judgment in every offside call, or no-call. The second of these, the moment of participation, is often easy to see: that?s usually where the ball lands and the players are playing, and that?s where everybody is looking. But the first ?moment of truth? is usually away from everyone?s attention, because what determines the ?offside position? is the relative position of each player at the moment the ball is struck.

?The moment the ball touches, or is played, by a teammate....?

Players touch the ball a lot during a soccer game, sometimes in very rapid succession. And soccer being a fluid game, on a good team each player is constantly in motion. This means that the first moment of judgment ? determining whether any players are in an offside position ? is constantly changing, and the relative position of the players will often be very different from one moment to the next. Yet the officials have to keep it all straight, and have a heartbeat or less to take a mental snapshot of the players? positioning at one frozen moment in time ? the moment the ball is played by a member of one team ? in order to judge whether an offside member of that team subsequently moves to play the ball, interferes with an opponent, or gains an advantage from being offside. From the official?s perspective, the game is an endless series of these snapshots, because each new touch of the ball redetermines the offside line.

Part of the difficulty in this is simple physics. Imagine that you are watching cars pass one another on the highway. It may seem easy to tell when one car is passing another in the two northbound lanes of traffic; but try telling the precise moment that a car traveling north is exactly even with a car traveling south. Now, combine this with the need make your decision at the precise moment that some other northbound car flashes its brights, and you get a pretty good idea of what the officials have to do, dozens of times in every game. If the cars are even, or the northbound car has not quite passed the one heading south at the moment the third car flashes its brights, the play is onside; if the northbound car has nosed ahead of the southbound car, the play is offside. Now, widen the highway to twenty lanes...increase the number of cars to twenty-two...set them all moving in different directions and at varying speeds...tell the assistant referee to stay even with the ?next to last car?...and if you can keep track of it all, you?re doing what the referees are doing every moment of the game. Just remember ? the official has to make each decision in a heartbeat.

But what really seems to confuse everyone is more a matter of psychology and perception. Suppose everyone is watching the car with the lights. When its brights flash, everyone turns to see the northbound car racing ahead, and by the time they turn their heads, it?s well past the southbound car, racing north as fast as the speed limit allows. In a soccer game, substitute players for cars, and the ball for the lights, and whichever way the call goes, this is the moment that half the crowd will often start screaming at the officials. But in fact, nobody but the assistant referee has any idea what the call should be, because nobody, except the one, lonely official, was watching the right players at the critical moment.

The important thing to remember is that the moment of judging ?offside position? is different than the moment of judging participation. And this is true whichever direction the players are moving. An offside player who comes back onside to receive the ball is still offside; to avoid the call, he cannot participate until another teammate touches the ball, or his opponents manage to collect it. On the other hand, a player who is onside will remain onside, no matter how far she runs to retrieve it, and no matter where the other team?s players move in the meantime. So, if Judy is onside when Stacey kicks the ball forward, it doesn?t matter if she?s twenty yards behind the defense when she collects the ball. The play will be onside...because she was onside at the moment her teammate passed the ball. And if Judy is onside...but Mary is offside...then an alert official will wait to see which one of them moves after the ball ? because if Mary takes herself out of the play, and allows Judy to collect it, then play can continue because there is no offside violation.

Soccer Officials and Offside

The offside rule has been part of Soccer for a long time, and has generated arguments and controversies since its inception. But its purpose is simple: to prevent ?cherry-picking.? And since it is an important part of the game, the match officials will enforce the rule to the best of their ability. So when the officials rule a play offside ?or let play continue, because they saw no infraction ? they are not doing it out of spite, or to hurt one team or the other. Rather, they are doing so regardless of which team it hurts or benefits, simply because the rules require it.

Officials have a difficult and sometimes thankless job. They have to enforce the rules, even if nobody else understands them, in order for the players to have a fair contest of skill. But the officials are there because they have no interest in the outcome, only a deep respect for the sport, and a willingness to run about the field, occasionally enduring unkind or uninformed remarks so that others can play a game they all love.

Knowing the rules can help coaches, players, and spectators understand the decisions the officials hand down during the match, as they try to keep the game fair, safe, and enjoyable for everybody. And occasionally, understanding the rules may spare everyone some needless grief, when a call goes against your favorite team.

Jeffrey Caminsky, a veteran public prosecutor in Michigan, specializes in the appellate practice of criminal law and writes on a wide range of topics. Both his science fiction adventure novel The Star Dancers, the first volume in the Guardians of Peace (tm) science fiction adventure series, and The Referee?s Survival Guide, a book on soccer officiating, are published by New Alexandria Press, http://www.newalexandriapress.com

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Wednesday, March 19, 2008

Soccer Equipments- Play soccer safely!

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Want to play Soccer? Soccer doesn?t require some special equipment but there are certain essential items that are required to play soccer. Some vital soccer equipments include soccer balls, soccer cleats, shin guards, soccer shirts, soccer goals and gloves for goalkeepers.

Soccer cleats or shoes are important at the time of playing soccer because players? feet need comfort. Don?t forget to wear stockings at the time of trying cleats on for correct size. Players can choose soccer cleats according to weather conditions and playing surfaces. You should try to choose the best cleats as per your needs.

Soccer balls come in three different sizes such as 3, 4, and 5 made up of different materials. These balls are different for every age group. Players should consult to their coach before selecting any one. They must follow some local rules and regulation to play the game safely.

Shin guards protect players from any type of leg injury that?s why they shouldn?t forget to wear them. Players must choose special shin guards that are designed according to their style of play like defenders require tougher duty guards to protect them in tackles while attacking players need light-weight guards for mobility.

Goalkeepers should wear gloves that provide better grip on the ball as well as protection to fingers and palms. Players can choose gloves as per their personal preference. FIFA sets some sizes, post height and sizes in the laws of game that are different for every age group. So the bottom line is that players should follow the rules of local leagues and then buy the correct soccer equipments.

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Monday, January 7, 2008

Junior Soccer Defending - Directing the Play

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http://www.juniorsoccercoach.com

Do your players know whether to show an opponent inside or outside when they are defending?

You may want to consider this tactic when coaching your players. There are two schools of thought on this; One says that your defenders should show the opponents outside towards the touchline.

The reason for this is that if your player does get beat then the opponent will still have to get a cross in. Also, they should be at a more acute angle to get a shot on target if they have been successfully pushed outside.

The alternative to this is showing the opponents inside, towards goal. If this is to be your style of play then the players need to be organised so that there is strength inside. This can be a risky tactic if players are not switched on or don't know where to best position themselves.

Showing them inside would be a good tactic if you where playing with five in defence with a good sweeper.

If your team lacks some direction on this tactic, then it will be very difficult for them to get an organised shape and take a position which is best suited to holding up or breaking down an attack.

Both young and older players can be coached on this.

As players get older, and become more tactically aware & proficient in defending techniques, they will be able to influence the build up play and therefore your defensive line can react, and adjust, by taking the lead off the first defender.

Build this simple tactic into some small sided games in training and watch the beneficial results on match day! For more Junior Soccer help, drills, exercises and coach development visit http://www.juniorsoccercoach.com and join the free junior soccer tip of the week. Or send a blank email to: mailto:tips@juniorsoccercoach.com

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