How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly forecasts.

The statistical methods described in this set of articles should help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.

In this article we will be describing the Footyforecast method. The Footyforecast method was originally developed for the English Football Pools and attempts to eliminate those matches that will not be draws, leaving you with a shorter list of matches from which to choose your 8 from 11. This method was introduced to the world in 1999 on the original Footyforecast website (now http://1X2Monster.com). This method is similar to the Simple Sequence method which is described in another of our articles in this series.

Here are the basic rules?

For each team work out the following,
1.Work out the total number of points obtained for the last N games.
2.Work out the maximum number of possible points for the last N games.
3.Divide the total number of points obtained by the maximum available and multiply by 100.
4.Calculate the forecast value.

In (1) and (2) above N games could be all the home games for the home side and all the away games for the away side. Alternatively N could be the last N games including all home and away games for a team.

The forecast value is calculated like this...

HOMEPOINTS = number of points for home team from last N games

AWAYPOINTS = number of points for away team from last N games

HOMEVAL = (HOMEPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

AWAYVAL = (AWAYPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

FORECAST = (HOMEVAL + (100 - AWAYVAL)) / 2

To calculate the possible outcome of a match based on the Footyforecast method the value is compared with the following...

1. A forecast value of 50 = a draw.
2. A value between 50 and 100 gives an increasing chance of a home win the closer to 100.
3. A value between 50 and 0 gives an increasing chance of an away win the closer to 0.

There are a few variables to consider, for example the number of matches to use and whether to use all matches or just home for home side and just away for away side to name but two. You may wish to experiment with these values.

By plotting actual resulting draws against the forecast it is possible to generate two threshold values, one for away wins and one for home wins, any values in-between these thresholds are likely draws. All matches outside these thresholds will be less likely to be draws. For example a value of 40 or less for away wins and a value of 60 or more for home wins. This would mean any matches falling between 41 and 59 may be draws.

What this method does, with careful tuning by the user is to eliminate many matches which will not be draws giving you a short list to choose from. This method is best used where an English Pools Plan is to be used.

Here is a worked example?

The values shown are the points gained by the team for each game in a sequence of four recent matches, you of course could choose more games to base your calculations on.

West Ham
H4 = 3 (oldest match)
H3 = 1
H2 = 1
H1 = 0 (most recent match)

Leeds Utd
A4 = 1 (oldest match)
A3 = 3
A2 = 0
A1 = 3 (most recent match)

Using only home games for home side and only away games for away side...

FFPHome = ((3 + 1 + 1 + 0) / 12) * 100 = 42
FFPAway = ((1 + 3 + 0 + 3) / 12) * 100 = 59
FFPForcast = (42 + (100 - 59)) / 2 = 42

If our threshold values are 40 and 60 then for this match the prediction lies in the expected draw region and at the lower end meaning that if it is not a draw the most likely other outcome would be an away win. This may be interpreted as an X2 prediction, i.e. draw or away win, which some bookies will accept as a bet.

Now it?s your turn?

Of course you may choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may come up with better values to use. You may also choose to use all home and away games played by each team in your calculations instead of just home games for the home team and away games for the away team. You may choose to have different thresholds than those shown above. You may also find it beneficial to plot actual results against the Footyforecast method predictions to see how many actual draws fall in the away win, draw, and home win prediction zones.

If you have the necessary skills you could go away and build your own spreadsheet of data or even write a piece of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Footyforecast method to your data. Or, if you?re lazy like me, you could grab some free software that already does this for you. If this last option is for you then visit 1X2Monster where you can download a FREE copy of the Footyforecast 2.0 software which utilises all of the statistical methods described in this series of articles. You will also be able to download FREE weekly database updates for your software, how cool is that?

Here is a list of all the articles in this series?

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Rateform Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Win Draw Loss Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Score Prediction Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Superiority Method

Malcolm Nossiter is the owner of 1x2monster.com and footyforecast.com. He has been providing hundreds of 1X2 tips every week since 1999. Please visit 1x2monster.com for a fountain of information on soccer betting.

Soccer Drills For Youth

Aggression plays an important role in soccer drills for youth. Here are some of the techniques that can help the coaches in training their team regarding aggressive drills.

Protect Drill

The protect drill method requires the player to protect the ball. This effective method can improve the drilling skills of the players largely. This method requires the players to work one on one.

The coach should have one player stand next to a ball, having his feet shoulder width apart. Now, have another player stand on the outside shoulder of the first player.

Now, the main task of the second player is to get his foot on the ball, by any means necessary. The job of the first player is to keep balance, protect the ball, and respond to open aggressiveness by a defender.

Getting Closer

The coaches can try this method with the same setup, as they require in the above method for protecting the ball. In this method, again, there are two players.

The only difference is that the main task of the player furthest from the ball to try to wedge his body between the inside player and the ball any way he can.

Push and Drag Drill

This method also ranks good for the coaches when it comes to teaching soccer drills for youth. In this method, the coach needs to have two players stand facing each other.

Now, instruct them to grab the other player's jersey up by the shoulders. This will put them face to face in a strong position. Here, let me add that you as a coach should stand 10 yards away from the players with a ball at your feet.

Now, as soon as you say ?GO!? blow the whistle, the task of the players to try to get the ball away from the coach. The players need to work hard on this and should show some aggression. The first to reach the ball wins.

What is more, in this method for soccer drills for youth, if the players are not showing aggression in their effort, you should begin to dribble away from the fighting players, forcing them to follow you in their tussling position.

Andre Botelho is a recognized authority on the subject of soccer drills for youth. His web site, Youth Soccer Drills, provides a wealth of informative soccer articles, resources and tips for soccer coaches, parents and players.

US Women Soccer Superstars - Victims of Their Own Success

With the imminent retirement of long-time veterans Mia Hamm, Julie Foudy, and Joy Fawcett from the U.S. Women's National Soccer Team, I often find myself thinking how fortunate my family has been to witness their heroics on the field and their positive influence off of it.

But the last game we saw in person stands out as a very different experience from the first game we saw nearly nine years ago.

Last summer, I attended a soccer match between Brazil and the United States Womens National Team in New Orleans with my teenage daughter, Leah. It was a great game with plenty of action on a beautiful, sunny afternoon, and the U.S. Team won on a Tiffeny Milbrett goal in the 90th minute.

For Leah and I, it was a bittersweet experience.

It was a wonderful dad and daughter 42-hour trip from our home in St. Petersburg, Florida to New Orleans and back again. We talked, we laughed, and we listened to each others music for each of the 20 hours and 1393 miles in the car. During our short stay, we visited Bourbon Street at night and the Cafe du Monde for breakfast.

But our journey's focus was to see our soccer heroes in action again. Thats right, I said OUR heroes. Ever since that rainy night in February of 1996 when we first saw our National Team play in Tampa, these outstanding women became my heroes every bit as much as my daughters heroes.

I remember being awestruck as I watched them for the first time their skills, their strength, and their obvious passion for the game. But it was after the game, that I was won over as a dedicated fan.

Earlier that day, Nicole, my younger daughter, asked me if she should bring her Official U.S. Womens National Team Calendar for autographs. My response - This is our National Team with the best players in the world. I really doubt you will get any autographs," I said. "With the rainy weather, you dont want to ruin your calendar, but bring your autograph book, just in case.

When the game ended, I couldn't believe my eyes. Every single player came over to the bleachers where about 1,900 spectators anxiously waited. Not only were they willing to sign autographs, but EACH OF THE PLAYERS HAD THEIR OWN PENS! They talked with the fans, posed for pictures, and most importantly, they really seemed to enjoy doing it. We were immediately hooked.

Since then, we've been extremely fortunate to witness some of their most important games: the 1996 Olympic Gold Medal match in Atlanta, the historic 1999 Womens World Cup Championship game in Los Angeles, and even Mia Hamms record-breaking moment for career goals in Orlando in 1999.

Weve had several encounters with the players, including clinics, autograph sessions, and we even attended a few training sessions in Orlando. Five years ago, while Leah worked as a junior reporter for the St. Petersburg Times, she wrote five features for the weekly X-Press Page for kids.

Along the way, Leah interviewed nearly every team member and even Head Coach Tony DiCicco. Afterwards, at the age of twelve, she wrote a book, Soccer Dreams, to share her adventure, promote the positive values she learned from the team, and to encourage readers to DREAM BIG! It was published last year and has earned very positive customer reviews at Amazon.com.

So our commitment to the Womens National Team runs deep. As a family, soccer has been a unifying force ever since Leah and Nicole played on the same U-8 team, which I coached. This great sport has provided us with countless memories, as participants and as spectators.

So why, you might wonder, was it bittersweet in New Orleans, to see our team again after more than four years of nothing but televised games? Most of the players were the same, and they all had the same intensity on the field weve come to expect.

But this time, the team had already broken through. Ever since the 1999 Womens World Cup, huge crowds cheer them on wherever they play. In New Orleans that day, they played in front of 15,000 spectators, with a live national television audience and a horde of media members reporting their every move.

They were enjoying all the fruits of their many years of labor. Their dreams of just a few years ago, playing in front of huge crowds, of being recognized, had been realized - repeatedly.

In the beginning, we wanted nothing more than for these players to be given their due, for them to enjoy their success. Now they are living like the superstars they have always been, with fans hanging out in their hotel lobby and screaming for autographs wherever they go. Easy access is probably gone forever. Recognizing and understanding that was an eye-opener.

Imagine being a Bruce Springsteen fan in the early Stone Pony days, before he rocketed to worldwide fame and glory. Perhaps you had a chance to talk to him, maybe even hang out with him. While you knew he was something special and you wanted him to reach the rarefied air of superstardom, once he did, your little secret was out. No more casual chats. No more hanging out. Now youre lucky to get an overpriced ticket in the nosebleed seats from a scalper.

But of course, like Bruce, try as they might, our National Team can no longer satisfy everyone. They still carry their own pens for autographs after the games, but now there are increased post-game media demands.

While goalkeeper Briana Scurry did the post-game ESPN interview that day in New Orleans, forwards Cindy Parlow and Mia Hamm were the first to be interviewed by the local media, followed by forward Tiffeny Milbrett, defender Brandi Chastain, and Head Coach April Heinrichs. The rest of the players signed autographs, but with 15,000 fans, it was simply impossible to accommodate every fan.

Leah didnt try to acquire autographs that day. She already has plenty, and on that day, we also had field photo credentials. Not only is autograph-collecting taboo for "objective" journalists, but our memories of the game will be in the photos we captured.

After the game, as the players boarded the bus, I saw one woman approach a team official. She was ranting and raving that she had driven five hours to bring her daughter to the game and that her daughter didnt get any autographs from the players. The team official explained that the players signed autographs for a half hour INSIDE the stadium, which was true.

Apparently, this woman and her daughter had been positioned in the wrong place and were headed home empty-handed. As she stormed off, she yelled, BOOO Womens National Team!! Ill never come to another game! BOOO!

I am certain other fans left empty-handed as well or disappointed with just one or two autographs. I am also certain this womans experience will be repeated during the current 10-game Fan's Celebration Tour and at future games as well.

Our National Team players are victims of their own success. After working so hard, for so long, to develop their fan support, it is simply impossible for them to continue to be so accessible and provide autographs to every fan who wants one.

So if you are lucky enough to see our National Team play this year or in any other games in the future, go to enjoy the skill, the intensity and the passion these gifted athletes put into their effort. If you are really lucky, and do get an autograph or two, even better.

But you shouldnt be disappointed if you dont get any autographs. And you should forewarn your kids that it might not be possible this time around, which will lessen their disappointment.

Finally, as youre driving home, take advantage of the opportunity to focus with your kids on the positive values (hard work, commitment, perseverance) these incredible athletes exemplify. Those are lessons we should want all our children to learn.

Chris Lauber is the photographer, editor, and publisher of Soccer Dreams, written by his daughter, Leah, to describe her true adventure following the U.S. Womens National Soccer Team, as a fan and 12-year-old Junior Reporter during the historic 1999 Womens World Cup. It is receiving excellent customer reviews at Amazon.com. Purchase Soccer Dreams at Amazon on November 8th and receive numerous bonuses. To receive an update, send us an e-mail to WWCSoccerDreams@aol.com.

http://www.SoccerDreamsBook.com