How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly forecasts.

The statistical methods described in this set of articles should help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.

In this article we will be describing the Footyforecast method. The Footyforecast method was originally developed for the English Football Pools and attempts to eliminate those matches that will not be draws, leaving you with a shorter list of matches from which to choose your 8 from 11. This method was introduced to the world in 1999 on the original Footyforecast website (now http://1X2Monster.com). This method is similar to the Simple Sequence method which is described in another of our articles in this series.

Here are the basic rules?

For each team work out the following,
1.Work out the total number of points obtained for the last N games.
2.Work out the maximum number of possible points for the last N games.
3.Divide the total number of points obtained by the maximum available and multiply by 100.
4.Calculate the forecast value.

In (1) and (2) above N games could be all the home games for the home side and all the away games for the away side. Alternatively N could be the last N games including all home and away games for a team.

The forecast value is calculated like this...

HOMEPOINTS = number of points for home team from last N games

AWAYPOINTS = number of points for away team from last N games

HOMEVAL = (HOMEPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

AWAYVAL = (AWAYPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

FORECAST = (HOMEVAL + (100 - AWAYVAL)) / 2

To calculate the possible outcome of a match based on the Footyforecast method the value is compared with the following...

1. A forecast value of 50 = a draw.
2. A value between 50 and 100 gives an increasing chance of a home win the closer to 100.
3. A value between 50 and 0 gives an increasing chance of an away win the closer to 0.

There are a few variables to consider, for example the number of matches to use and whether to use all matches or just home for home side and just away for away side to name but two. You may wish to experiment with these values.

By plotting actual resulting draws against the forecast it is possible to generate two threshold values, one for away wins and one for home wins, any values in-between these thresholds are likely draws. All matches outside these thresholds will be less likely to be draws. For example a value of 40 or less for away wins and a value of 60 or more for home wins. This would mean any matches falling between 41 and 59 may be draws.

What this method does, with careful tuning by the user is to eliminate many matches which will not be draws giving you a short list to choose from. This method is best used where an English Pools Plan is to be used.

Here is a worked example?

The values shown are the points gained by the team for each game in a sequence of four recent matches, you of course could choose more games to base your calculations on.

West Ham
H4 = 3 (oldest match)
H3 = 1
H2 = 1
H1 = 0 (most recent match)

Leeds Utd
A4 = 1 (oldest match)
A3 = 3
A2 = 0
A1 = 3 (most recent match)

Using only home games for home side and only away games for away side...

FFPHome = ((3 + 1 + 1 + 0) / 12) * 100 = 42
FFPAway = ((1 + 3 + 0 + 3) / 12) * 100 = 59
FFPForcast = (42 + (100 - 59)) / 2 = 42

If our threshold values are 40 and 60 then for this match the prediction lies in the expected draw region and at the lower end meaning that if it is not a draw the most likely other outcome would be an away win. This may be interpreted as an X2 prediction, i.e. draw or away win, which some bookies will accept as a bet.

Now it?s your turn?

Of course you may choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may come up with better values to use. You may also choose to use all home and away games played by each team in your calculations instead of just home games for the home team and away games for the away team. You may choose to have different thresholds than those shown above. You may also find it beneficial to plot actual results against the Footyforecast method predictions to see how many actual draws fall in the away win, draw, and home win prediction zones.

If you have the necessary skills you could go away and build your own spreadsheet of data or even write a piece of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Footyforecast method to your data. Or, if you?re lazy like me, you could grab some free software that already does this for you. If this last option is for you then visit 1X2Monster where you can download a FREE copy of the Footyforecast 2.0 software which utilises all of the statistical methods described in this series of articles. You will also be able to download FREE weekly database updates for your software, how cool is that?

Here is a list of all the articles in this series?

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Rateform Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Win Draw Loss Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Score Prediction Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Superiority Method

Malcolm Nossiter is the owner of 1x2monster.com and footyforecast.com. He has been providing hundreds of 1X2 tips every week since 1999. Please visit 1x2monster.com for a fountain of information on soccer betting.

The Secret of Asian Handicap Soccer Betting

Soccer betting is by far the most widely accepted form of gambling around the world. This is because of the nature of the betting style and because most people think that it?s the easiest form of gambling.

There are only two teams to bet. Either Team Win or Lose or Draw. And of course there are other form of betting in soccer and ? The Asian Handicap and I am going to explain a little bit more about this.

Asian Handicap is a method of giving or accepting handicap from one team. This is mostly played by Asians and more and more people in Europe are adopting this style of betting.

If you are accepting handicap, you have more probability to win because you will win your bet even if the game end up in a Draw.

There are many strategies that you can apply when betting on Asian Handicap and I am going to go through just some that is really important when you are placing a bet in soccer.

The opening odds and the movement will tell us where the game is heading. It is very important to take note of the opening odds when you are betting on Asian Handicap.

If you are serious about betting on Asian Handicap, there are many books offering the secrets signal to look out for in the odds. www.soccerbettingpro.com provides very clear and easy signals to look out for and these signals are of 90% correct.

Writer is the author for ?Make Your Bookie Your ATM Machine? and has more than 12 years of experience in the soccer betting industries. To know more about the author, you can visit http://www.soccerbettingpro.com and writer also provide paid tips services where he is one of the best Banker?s Bet provider in the world. Visit http://www.soccerbettingpro.com/tips

Will The 2010 World Cup Soccer Inflate The Value Property In SA?

The 2010 Soccer Tournament is definitely not comparable with the 1995 Rugby World Cup. In 1995 only 25 000 tourists visited South Africa. FIFA expects some 350 000 foreign tourists in 2010. The prediction is that the soccer fans will spend R10bn on meals, accommodation, transport and merchandise, he said.

?The influx of foreign capital is great, however, insignificant in comparison to the huge spin-offs the publicity will have for South Africa?, says Lodewyk Joubert, CEO of Syndation. ?Over a billion people are expected to follow the month-long tournament between the world?s top 32 soccer playing nations?.

Andrew Golding, CE of the Pam Golding Property Group confirms that the potential spin-offs are far-reaching. As soccer enjoys a large following, countries that have not been exposed to South Africa before will be in 2010.

?Just imagine what will be promoted on TV during this period?, Joubert says. ?Images of our natural beauty ? of Table Mountain, the Kruger National Park and the bushveld, the Southern Cape coastline, the Kalahari and a few other places will be brought to billions of households around the globe.

If we do this correctly, it will be an advertising campaign for luxury lifestyle ownership in South Africa on a scale that has never been seen before!?

Jose Ventura, MD of Pam Golding VIP, made the connection recently that the future of luxury lifestyle ownership lies in stress-free fractional ownership.

"There are clear and distinct differences between property syndications and high-end fractional ownership. The two should not be confused?, says Stephen Rademeyer, of Syndation. ?High-end fractional ownership is a fully managed service with international and local exchange options ? the difference is the hassle-free component which is generally not found with normal property syndication.?

A lot can be learnt from previous World Cups and other tournaments of that magnitude such as the Olympic Games. Greece did not promote the property market to the extent that Barcelona and Sydney did. The latter capitalised on the publicity and promoted Spain and Australia as great places to tour and to own a second home.

Similarly the property prices in Paris escalated by between 60-100% within the first year after the 2002 World Cup in France.

Butana Komphela, chairperson of parliament's sport and recreation committee warned that the experience of the Soccer World Cup in Japan and South Korea showed the job creation forecasts were hugely overestimated. However, even Mbembe agrees the World Cup will boost investment and tourism in the longer term - as long as South Africa can utlise the promotional value the world cup would render.

Lourens van Wyk (Industrial Psychologist)

Soccer Goalie: Teaching the Goal Keeping Skills

A skillful soccer goalie in your team can make a huge difference in winning or losing games. The position of the goalie is the dichotomy of the team. It can be both fun and exciting. Unlike the rest of the players, the ultimate goal of the goalie is to stop scores.

Therefore, an expert coach knows that it becomes sometime necessary to offer some consolation and praise to the goalie to retain his self-esteem. Here go some valuable tips.

Pulling The Ball Tightly Into The Body

Train the goalie in a way that he should pull the ball tightly into the body when catching the ball. If you are coaching the team of younger players, it is always a great idea to teach them to cuddle the ball on the ground and keep their body in front of the ball.

This way, the shins, knees and feet will also help stop the ball. This method carries bucketful of advantages. For example, the number of injured hands and fingers by over ambitious opponents will be significantly reduced.

Handling The Ball Effectively

When it comes to handling the ball effectively, you should teach the young goalie to use two hand positions, the W and the Heart. Keep your watchful eyes open and observe the activities the goalie. If they are trying to trap the ball between their hands like catching a fly, rather than having the ball meet their hands, stop them from doing so and tell them the right way.

W Is Best Used For The Youngest Goalies

If the goalie is very young, the W is the best for him. This does not allow their hands to become as big as possible but at the same time, it also keeps them from doing the flytrap. Teach them to form the W by placing the tip of their thumbs together, with their palms toward the ball and fingers pointing upwards.

What is more, one of the required skills for each and every soccer goalie is their ability to move quickly side-to-side and general quickness.

Andre Botelho is a recognized authority on the subject of soccer goalie. His web site, Youth Soccer Drills, provides a wealth of informative soccer articles, resources and tips for soccer coaches, parents and players.