How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly forecasts.

The statistical methods described in this set of articles should help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.

In this article we will be describing the Footyforecast method. The Footyforecast method was originally developed for the English Football Pools and attempts to eliminate those matches that will not be draws, leaving you with a shorter list of matches from which to choose your 8 from 11. This method was introduced to the world in 1999 on the original Footyforecast website (now http://1X2Monster.com). This method is similar to the Simple Sequence method which is described in another of our articles in this series.

Here are the basic rules?

For each team work out the following,
1.Work out the total number of points obtained for the last N games.
2.Work out the maximum number of possible points for the last N games.
3.Divide the total number of points obtained by the maximum available and multiply by 100.
4.Calculate the forecast value.

In (1) and (2) above N games could be all the home games for the home side and all the away games for the away side. Alternatively N could be the last N games including all home and away games for a team.

The forecast value is calculated like this...

HOMEPOINTS = number of points for home team from last N games

AWAYPOINTS = number of points for away team from last N games

HOMEVAL = (HOMEPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

AWAYVAL = (AWAYPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

FORECAST = (HOMEVAL + (100 - AWAYVAL)) / 2

To calculate the possible outcome of a match based on the Footyforecast method the value is compared with the following...

1. A forecast value of 50 = a draw.
2. A value between 50 and 100 gives an increasing chance of a home win the closer to 100.
3. A value between 50 and 0 gives an increasing chance of an away win the closer to 0.

There are a few variables to consider, for example the number of matches to use and whether to use all matches or just home for home side and just away for away side to name but two. You may wish to experiment with these values.

By plotting actual resulting draws against the forecast it is possible to generate two threshold values, one for away wins and one for home wins, any values in-between these thresholds are likely draws. All matches outside these thresholds will be less likely to be draws. For example a value of 40 or less for away wins and a value of 60 or more for home wins. This would mean any matches falling between 41 and 59 may be draws.

What this method does, with careful tuning by the user is to eliminate many matches which will not be draws giving you a short list to choose from. This method is best used where an English Pools Plan is to be used.

Here is a worked example?

The values shown are the points gained by the team for each game in a sequence of four recent matches, you of course could choose more games to base your calculations on.

West Ham
H4 = 3 (oldest match)
H3 = 1
H2 = 1
H1 = 0 (most recent match)

Leeds Utd
A4 = 1 (oldest match)
A3 = 3
A2 = 0
A1 = 3 (most recent match)

Using only home games for home side and only away games for away side...

FFPHome = ((3 + 1 + 1 + 0) / 12) * 100 = 42
FFPAway = ((1 + 3 + 0 + 3) / 12) * 100 = 59
FFPForcast = (42 + (100 - 59)) / 2 = 42

If our threshold values are 40 and 60 then for this match the prediction lies in the expected draw region and at the lower end meaning that if it is not a draw the most likely other outcome would be an away win. This may be interpreted as an X2 prediction, i.e. draw or away win, which some bookies will accept as a bet.

Now it?s your turn?

Of course you may choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may come up with better values to use. You may also choose to use all home and away games played by each team in your calculations instead of just home games for the home team and away games for the away team. You may choose to have different thresholds than those shown above. You may also find it beneficial to plot actual results against the Footyforecast method predictions to see how many actual draws fall in the away win, draw, and home win prediction zones.

If you have the necessary skills you could go away and build your own spreadsheet of data or even write a piece of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Footyforecast method to your data. Or, if you?re lazy like me, you could grab some free software that already does this for you. If this last option is for you then visit 1X2Monster where you can download a FREE copy of the Footyforecast 2.0 software which utilises all of the statistical methods described in this series of articles. You will also be able to download FREE weekly database updates for your software, how cool is that?

Here is a list of all the articles in this series?

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Rateform Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Win Draw Loss Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Score Prediction Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Superiority Method

Malcolm Nossiter is the owner of 1x2monster.com and footyforecast.com. He has been providing hundreds of 1X2 tips every week since 1999. Please visit 1x2monster.com for a fountain of information on soccer betting.

Young Soccer Players And The Stages Of Learning

When a new skill is learned there are three stages of the development, the mental, practice and automatic stage.

Throughout these three stages your input into the learning cycle will differ according to the phase the player is in.

The Mental Stage

When a player first learns a new skill their key goal is to understand what to do to perform the technique correctly. They draw upon all of their awareness to search for information to map the correct technique.

It's more about internalizing "mentally" the physical technique of what's to be done. The mental map is made from previous activities, similar actions and looks, visual input as the player attempts to make neural connections so that their physical body can perform.

Coaching during the Mental Stage

Patience is the key. Some players will make the connections a lot quicker and will be able to perform the technique sooner than others.

Only key information should be given to the players at this stage as there is a tendency for player to become overwhelmed with information if they are given too much instruction.

Visual indicators are very important during this development phase, which is why we encourage you to demonstrate new techniques and skills.

The Practice Stage

The next phase of mastering a technique is to have a go.

There is some overlap with the mental stage here as the players will be having a go at the technique, but they will still be making mental connections as the neural paths start to give information too.

Refinement is the key here and so the more opportunities that the players have to execute the skill the better.

As players practice the errors they make should start to reduce over time as the sensory, visual and touch functions will start to give feedback to the players on how well they are performing the technique.

For example, when under 6's practice dribbling just keeping the ball close is a major battle, any adjustments they make can often lead to the ball being toe poked away even further!

But as the young players see the ball moving away from them, and make small jumpy movements to keep the ball under control, all of the feedback signals will be computing and assisting in their development.

Coaching in the Practice Stage

Observation, accurate feedback, encouragement and praise are all key skills during this phase.

Very young players will need more feedback whereas youth players should be able to self analyse their performance; some well structured questions can also assist.

The Automatic Stage

As practice continues so the players become far more proficient at the technique; this then frees up some mental capacity to take the learning even further.

This is why some techniques lend themselves to a chaining type coaching method, or when using a functional phase practice and build it through to extended play.

Players in the automatic stage know when they have made mistakes and also have the knowledge internally on how to put things right without much input from the coach.

However, complacency can creep in, so to can over-analyzing a technique which can be harmful to performance.

Coaching in the Automatic Stage

Rather than coaching specifics, the coaches duty now shifts to present more challenging situations to practice the technique and develop it into a full functioning skill.

Refinement is the key to develop truly magnificent players.

Claim your complimentary copy of the 'Soccer Coaching Guide' provided by Junior Soccer Coach and receive hints, tips and techniques to improve your team?s performance AND your expertise as a coach. Grab your copy now, visit the website today? The Junior Soccer Coach - Soccer Coaching Guide

Soccer - The Sport That Binds The World

Soccer is famous among the layman by the name of ?Football?. The term ?Soccer? has been derived from the word ?assoc? that in turn originated from ?Association?. The game is basically about ?playing ball with the foot?.

Today, football is played at a professional level all over the world, and millions of people regularly go to football stadium to follow their favourite team, whilst billions more watch the game on television. Since, soccer evokes great passions and plays an important role in the life of individual fans, local communities, and even nations; it is therefore often claimed to be one of the most popular sports in the world.

The game of soccer, played between two teams of 11 players each, is by far the most popular sports in the world. The game is played with a ball on a rectangular grass field with a goal at each end of the field. The object of the game is to score by manoeuvring the ball into the opposing goal. The team that scores the most goals by the end of the match wins. A game is officiated by a referee, who has "full authority to enforce the Laws of the Game in connection with the match to which he has been appointed" and whose decisions are final. The referee is assisted by two assistant referees. A standard adult football match consists of two periods of 45 minutes each, known as halves. There is usually a 15-minute "half-time" break between halves. The end of the match is known as "full-time."

The contemporary history of soccer dates back to more than 100 years. It all began in 1863 in England, when rugby football and association football branched off on their different courses and the world's first football association was founded - The Football Association in England. Both forms of football have a common base and both have a long and intricately branched ancestral tree. After the English Football Association, the next oldest are the Scottish FA (1873), the FA of Wales (1875) and the Irish FA (1880). Strictly speaking, at the time of the first international match, England had no other partner association against which to play. The spread of soccer outside of Great Britain, mainly due to the British influence abroad, started slow, but it soon gathered momentum and spread rapidly to all parts of the world and today it is an undeniable truth that the game has die-hard fans all over the globe.

Scholars might have conflicting views on the origins of the game and the influences that certain cults may have had on its evolution, but one thing is absolute truth: football has flourished for over a thousand years in diverse rudimentary forms, in the very region which we describe as its home, England and the British Isles.

Football is governed internationally by the International Federation of Association Football (FIFA). The most prestigious international football competition is the World Cup, held every four years. More than 190 national teams compete in qualifying tournaments within the scope of continental confederations for a place in the finals. Since 1900, Summer Olympic Games also holds a football tournamnet. After the World Cup, the most important football competitions are the continental championships, which are organised by each continental confederation and contested between national teams. These are the European Championship (UEFA), the Copa Am?rica (CONMEBOL), African Cup of Nations (CAF), the Asian Cup (AFC), the CONCACAF Gold Cup (CONCACAF) and the OFC Nations Cup (OFC).

Alan Gibson is currently the sole owner of nipsworld.co.uk, a cheap quality source for sports equipment.

He also specializes in a variety of English soccer memrobilia and uk football kit.