How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly forecasts.

The statistical methods described in this set of articles should help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.

In this article we will be describing the Footyforecast method. The Footyforecast method was originally developed for the English Football Pools and attempts to eliminate those matches that will not be draws, leaving you with a shorter list of matches from which to choose your 8 from 11. This method was introduced to the world in 1999 on the original Footyforecast website (now http://1X2Monster.com). This method is similar to the Simple Sequence method which is described in another of our articles in this series.

Here are the basic rules?

For each team work out the following,
1.Work out the total number of points obtained for the last N games.
2.Work out the maximum number of possible points for the last N games.
3.Divide the total number of points obtained by the maximum available and multiply by 100.
4.Calculate the forecast value.

In (1) and (2) above N games could be all the home games for the home side and all the away games for the away side. Alternatively N could be the last N games including all home and away games for a team.

The forecast value is calculated like this...

HOMEPOINTS = number of points for home team from last N games

AWAYPOINTS = number of points for away team from last N games

HOMEVAL = (HOMEPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

AWAYVAL = (AWAYPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

FORECAST = (HOMEVAL + (100 - AWAYVAL)) / 2

To calculate the possible outcome of a match based on the Footyforecast method the value is compared with the following...

1. A forecast value of 50 = a draw.
2. A value between 50 and 100 gives an increasing chance of a home win the closer to 100.
3. A value between 50 and 0 gives an increasing chance of an away win the closer to 0.

There are a few variables to consider, for example the number of matches to use and whether to use all matches or just home for home side and just away for away side to name but two. You may wish to experiment with these values.

By plotting actual resulting draws against the forecast it is possible to generate two threshold values, one for away wins and one for home wins, any values in-between these thresholds are likely draws. All matches outside these thresholds will be less likely to be draws. For example a value of 40 or less for away wins and a value of 60 or more for home wins. This would mean any matches falling between 41 and 59 may be draws.

What this method does, with careful tuning by the user is to eliminate many matches which will not be draws giving you a short list to choose from. This method is best used where an English Pools Plan is to be used.

Here is a worked example?

The values shown are the points gained by the team for each game in a sequence of four recent matches, you of course could choose more games to base your calculations on.

West Ham
H4 = 3 (oldest match)
H3 = 1
H2 = 1
H1 = 0 (most recent match)

Leeds Utd
A4 = 1 (oldest match)
A3 = 3
A2 = 0
A1 = 3 (most recent match)

Using only home games for home side and only away games for away side...

FFPHome = ((3 + 1 + 1 + 0) / 12) * 100 = 42
FFPAway = ((1 + 3 + 0 + 3) / 12) * 100 = 59
FFPForcast = (42 + (100 - 59)) / 2 = 42

If our threshold values are 40 and 60 then for this match the prediction lies in the expected draw region and at the lower end meaning that if it is not a draw the most likely other outcome would be an away win. This may be interpreted as an X2 prediction, i.e. draw or away win, which some bookies will accept as a bet.

Now it?s your turn?

Of course you may choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may come up with better values to use. You may also choose to use all home and away games played by each team in your calculations instead of just home games for the home team and away games for the away team. You may choose to have different thresholds than those shown above. You may also find it beneficial to plot actual results against the Footyforecast method predictions to see how many actual draws fall in the away win, draw, and home win prediction zones.

If you have the necessary skills you could go away and build your own spreadsheet of data or even write a piece of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Footyforecast method to your data. Or, if you?re lazy like me, you could grab some free software that already does this for you. If this last option is for you then visit 1X2Monster where you can download a FREE copy of the Footyforecast 2.0 software which utilises all of the statistical methods described in this series of articles. You will also be able to download FREE weekly database updates for your software, how cool is that?

Here is a list of all the articles in this series?

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Rateform Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Win Draw Loss Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Score Prediction Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Superiority Method

Malcolm Nossiter is the owner of 1x2monster.com and footyforecast.com. He has been providing hundreds of 1X2 tips every week since 1999. Please visit 1x2monster.com for a fountain of information on soccer betting.

Basic Rules Of Soccer

This papers is all about the topic that you have been looking for, take your time to read.

Association football is a very popular sports game. In this game you have two opposed teams trying to score a goal for their team by hitting the ball into the other side?s soccer goal. While this can be a sport game both to watch and play there are a few basic rules of soccer that need to be followed. These are principally way to keep the game from turn rowdy and very dangerous.

In the first part of game you will have to have two teams who are willing to play against each other. The very first basic rules of soccer should come into play as soon as both of these teams are on the field. There should be Eleven people on the field who are sledding to play the game. The rest of the squad should be posing or wait on the sidelines only. They must stay there unless they are needed to go on the field.

In the most basic rules of soccer also having play you should make sure that you assure the ball with the rest of your body. You want to be sure that your hands and arms come perfectly no where near the soccer ball or the other team will get a free turn at performing and your team will have to begin the defensive soccer ball game.

When you are performing this game you will need to make sure that you don?t tackle the goal keeper. Doing a move like this will only gain your team a foul. This is a penalization which will let your opponents have a free turn at trying to score a goal. Of all the basic rules of soccer is that of Taking the game by having the most goals scored. You must try to accomplish this by acting fairly, otherwise your squad will lose valuable points.

So as well the basic rules of soccer what else can you expect? You should try and void any diving event tackles as this can cause hurt to the person that you are tackling. You will need to invest in the right soccer equipment that your soccer squad approves of. In addition to this there is only one main rule that you will need to remember. From all of the basic rules of soccer this one counts the most ? have fun.

Well now that you know a few of the basic rules of soccer you can try this game out for yourself. There are very few rules for you to truly remember but if you want to know some of the other rules that are around for more formal (big matches) soccer games you can see what the FIFA World Wide Web site has about these association football rules. I?am glad you have found this article I trust you found the information useful.

Michael Malega presents several basic rules of soccer articles for your information. You can visit Michael's web site at: http://www.soccer-tricks-rules.com/index.php

Why Coach Soccer? And How To Have Fun.

Warren Buffet might not know soccer, but when he said, "Tell me your heroes and I'll tell you how your life will end up", he was onto something.

When it comes to coaching, everyone wants a say but few are willing to turn their words into action and take a team even under 8s which is where yours truly started.

How can You enjoy coaching soccer? Let me count the ways:

1. Coach your kids and you get to spend more time with them at something you can help them have fun at AND enjoy mastering new skills.

2. Coaching young people of any age gives you the opportunity to have a massive and important influence on the future of your community and country! This is not just talk. Ask any adult who has played sport for a while and there is a good chance the had great people who were their coaches.

3. You will be remembered for all the right reasons and kids will copy your example. There are no less than 3 great coaches I remember until I left town at 17. Mr Nicolas (Fatherly man who really cared and It was much appreciate) Mr Edgar (fantastic accent I still havent mastered but he was fair and encouraging), and lastly Bobby Feed the Bear Mutter (A burly Scotsman whose belief in me propelled my confidence sky high, I can still hear him call, Whos the boss Richard? Show him whos the boss!

4. You get to develop skills in something you have a passion for and coaching soccer skills is full of challenge and rewards.

5. Get a life! No longer wandering the streets looking for something or sitting in front of the TV, rock up to your local soccer club or school and Im sure there will be opportunities to add a new dimension to your life and the lives of others.

6. Build contacts in your community and neighborhood. If you coach kids they have parents and they have lives too that may provide a way to help you with something in your life.

7. Leadership, responsibility, and commitment all have their own rewards and these are abundant when you coach soccer.

8. If you are a player in a club you get praise from members in the club, you get on the in with the other coaches in case you wanted to advance a career in this way, and you get some equipment to use whenever you want to improve your own game.

9. It will add to your attractiveness to employers as coaching soccer or any sport, shows the attributes above. These are easily re-worded to suit the job type. E.g. Active Member of my Community. It shows commitment, reliability, purpose, and that you can get out of bed in the morning.

10. Personal satisfaction. Winning your competition, one game, or having kept a bunch of people happy and off the streets. Plus you are involved doing what you love, Soccer (sport).

I once coached soccer at a local high school and these young boys (11 and 12 yrs) came to class with short black pen marked on the top of their wrists and hands What is that for?, I asked, Were Mr. Kerr-Bell they said! Never under estimate your power.

There are many coaching videos, courses (often run by your local Soccer Club), books and other coaches to help you. A good way to start is to support the coach, be a manager, or gear minder person and learn that way. Showing up to practices to help is also useful.

Coaching soccer is a full on commitment that reflects everything the Real Madrids and Manchester United coaches experience (except the money and chance off being replaced if you lose!)

So enjoy the rush of excitement and adrenaline that coaching gives on matchday

(PS. Look up soccer club directory online in the search box or thumb through your phonebook to find a club near you.)

Get out there coaching soccer and make a difference and remember, if you are there for the game or kids... you have already won.

By Richard Kerr-Bell

richlife@xtra.co.nz

www.training-soccer-expert.com

Richard Kerr-Bell has played soccer for 32 years and coached for 12. He currently coaches at the Academy of Sport for the Otago Polytechnic. Copyrite2004. All items can be copied as long as the author and contact/web details are added.

Rich@training-soccer-expert.com