How To Improve Your Soccer Bets

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly forecasts.

The statistical methods described in this set of articles should help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.

In this article we will be describing the Footyforecast method. The Footyforecast method was originally developed for the English Football Pools and attempts to eliminate those matches that will not be draws, leaving you with a shorter list of matches from which to choose your 8 from 11. This method was introduced to the world in 1999 on the original Footyforecast website (now 1X2Monster.com). This method is similar to the Simple Sequence method which is described in another of our articles in this series.

Here are the basic rules?

For each team work out the following,
1. Work out the total number of points obtained for the last N games.
2. Work out the maximum number of possible points for the last N games.
3. Divide the total number of points obtained by the maximum available and multiply by 100.
4. Calculate the forecast value.

In (1) and (2) above N games could be all the home games for the home side and all the away games for the away side. Alternatively N could be the last N games including all home and away games for a team.

The forecast value is calculated like this...

HOMEPOINTS = number of points for home team from last N games

AWAYPOINTS = number of points for away team from last N games

HOMEVAL = (HOMEPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

AWAYVAL = (AWAYPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

FORECAST = (HOMEVAL + (100 - AWAYVAL)) / 2

To calculate the possible outcome of a match based on the Footyforecast method the value is compared with the following...

1. A forecast value of 50 = a draw.
2. A value between 50 and 100 gives an increasing chance of a home win the closer to 100.
3. A value between 50 and 0 gives an increasing chance of an away win the closer to 0.

There are a few variables to consider, for example the number of matches to use and whether to use all matches or just home for home side and just away for away side to name but two. You may wish to experiment with these values.

By plotting actual resulting draws against the forecast it is possible to generate two threshold values, one for away wins and one for home wins, any values in-between these thresholds are likely draws. All matches outside these thresholds will be less likely to be draws. For example a value of 40 or less for away wins and a value of 60 or more for home wins. This would mean any matches falling between 41 and 59 may be draws. What this method does, with careful tuning by the user is to eliminate many matches which will not be draws giving you a short list to choose from. This method is best used where an English Pools Plan is to be used.

Here is a worked example?

The values shown are the points gained by the team for each game in a sequence of four recent matches, you of course could choose more games to base your calculations on. West Ham
H4 = 3 (oldest match)
H3 = 1
H2 = 1
H1 = 0 (most recent match)v Leeds Utd
A4 = 1 (oldest match)
A3 = 3
A2 = 0
A1 = 3 (most recent match)

Using only home games for home side and only away games for away side...

FFPHome = ((3 + 1 + 1 + 0) / 12) * 100 = 42
FFPAway = ((1 + 3 + 0 + 3) / 12) * 100 = 59
FFPForcast = (42 + (100 - 59)) / 2 = 42

If our threshold values are 40 and 60 then for this match the prediction lies in the expected draw region and at the lower end meaning that if it is not a draw the most likely other outcome would be an away win. This may be interpreted as an X2 prediction, i.e. draw or away win, which some bookies will accept as a bet.

Now it?s your turn?

Here is a list of all the articles in this series?

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Rateform Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Win Draw Loss Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Score Prediction Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Superiority Method

Malcolm Nossiter is the owner of http://www.1x2monster.com and http://www.footyforecast.com. He has been providing hundreds of 1X2 tips every week since 1999. Please visit 1x2monster.com for a fountain of information on soccer betting.

Soccer Jerseys, Clothes Or Collectibles?

Soccer jerseys may well surpass all other team sport uniform items in wear ability and collect ability. A serious fan may have no greater earthly possession than their favorite team's jersey, and if they were able to get an autographed one, all the better. An article of clothing, made for durability and comfort on the soccer field can quickly become an artistic focal point in the fan's home. Many fans display their beloved jerseys in cases especially designed for the purpose.

There are currently over 5000 soccer jerseys available for bidding on at EBay, which is known as the world's auction house. A current jersey from the Brazilian National team, signed by all the players, is listed at 300.00, plus shipping. It seems doubtful that once purchased this jersey will be wore by its proud owner, rather it will probably be more of decorative item, and perhaps kept as an investment.

Looking further, I discovered an incredible piece of football history. A jersey worn during the Brazil-Austria match on July 11, 1971. A Brazilian home jersey from a match just months after Brazil had won the World Cup. But wait, there's more! Pele, instrumental in Brazil winning the World Cup, was the wearer of this shirt! He scored the only goal in the match that day against Austria, and signed the shirt, which has never been laundered. It was to be Pele's last game with Brazil, also. The next lucky owner of this remarkably collectible jersey will also have a letter of authenticity signed by Pele. The going price is $27,445.00!

The historic Pele jersey may be out of many a fan's financial reach, however authentic replica shirts are available for modest costs, and it won't be sacrilege to wear them. Today's stars also represent a way to get into collecting signed jerseys, at prices within the reach of many more fans than the vintage jerseys are bringing. David Beckman and Mia Hamm are examples of current and recent stars who's signed jerseys are worth considering investing in before they increase too much more in value.

Whether you are a player, or fanatical armchair coach, wearing and collecting jerseys is a great way to connect with your favorite players and team, and if they happen to go up in value, all the better. Owning a piece of sports history has its own value, that a non-fan may never be able to appreciate.

From a parent's stand point, their child's soccer jerseys are a wonderful way to mark the years, and chart the growth of their own little Pele. Hanging each seasons jersey around your child's room will be an inspiration to them, as it shows how you value their efforts. Your young player may not have been the star striker, or the glorified 'do or die' goalie, but they did their best, and enjoyed the battle field. Some day when you're your soccer player has gone off to college, these jerseys may prove as valuable to you as a signed jersey from a star player.

Get all the latest in Soccer know how from the one and only true source at http://www.SoccerDetails.com

Be sure to check our soccer jersey page.