How To Improve Your Soccer Bets

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly forecasts.

The statistical methods described in this set of articles should help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.

In this article we will be describing the Footyforecast method. The Footyforecast method was originally developed for the English Football Pools and attempts to eliminate those matches that will not be draws, leaving you with a shorter list of matches from which to choose your 8 from 11. This method was introduced to the world in 1999 on the original Footyforecast website (now 1X2Monster.com). This method is similar to the Simple Sequence method which is described in another of our articles in this series.

Here are the basic rules?

For each team work out the following,
1. Work out the total number of points obtained for the last N games.
2. Work out the maximum number of possible points for the last N games.
3. Divide the total number of points obtained by the maximum available and multiply by 100.
4. Calculate the forecast value.

In (1) and (2) above N games could be all the home games for the home side and all the away games for the away side. Alternatively N could be the last N games including all home and away games for a team.

The forecast value is calculated like this...

HOMEPOINTS = number of points for home team from last N games

AWAYPOINTS = number of points for away team from last N games

HOMEVAL = (HOMEPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

AWAYVAL = (AWAYPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

FORECAST = (HOMEVAL + (100 - AWAYVAL)) / 2

To calculate the possible outcome of a match based on the Footyforecast method the value is compared with the following...

1. A forecast value of 50 = a draw.
2. A value between 50 and 100 gives an increasing chance of a home win the closer to 100.
3. A value between 50 and 0 gives an increasing chance of an away win the closer to 0.

There are a few variables to consider, for example the number of matches to use and whether to use all matches or just home for home side and just away for away side to name but two. You may wish to experiment with these values.

By plotting actual resulting draws against the forecast it is possible to generate two threshold values, one for away wins and one for home wins, any values in-between these thresholds are likely draws. All matches outside these thresholds will be less likely to be draws. For example a value of 40 or less for away wins and a value of 60 or more for home wins. This would mean any matches falling between 41 and 59 may be draws. What this method does, with careful tuning by the user is to eliminate many matches which will not be draws giving you a short list to choose from. This method is best used where an English Pools Plan is to be used.

Here is a worked example?

The values shown are the points gained by the team for each game in a sequence of four recent matches, you of course could choose more games to base your calculations on. West Ham
H4 = 3 (oldest match)
H3 = 1
H2 = 1
H1 = 0 (most recent match)v Leeds Utd
A4 = 1 (oldest match)
A3 = 3
A2 = 0
A1 = 3 (most recent match)

Using only home games for home side and only away games for away side...

FFPHome = ((3 + 1 + 1 + 0) / 12) * 100 = 42
FFPAway = ((1 + 3 + 0 + 3) / 12) * 100 = 59
FFPForcast = (42 + (100 - 59)) / 2 = 42

If our threshold values are 40 and 60 then for this match the prediction lies in the expected draw region and at the lower end meaning that if it is not a draw the most likely other outcome would be an away win. This may be interpreted as an X2 prediction, i.e. draw or away win, which some bookies will accept as a bet.

Now it?s your turn?

Here is a list of all the articles in this series?

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Rateform Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Win Draw Loss Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Score Prediction Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Superiority Method

Malcolm Nossiter is the owner of http://www.1x2monster.com and http://www.footyforecast.com. He has been providing hundreds of 1X2 tips every week since 1999. Please visit 1x2monster.com for a fountain of information on soccer betting.

Soccer Rules - Fouls - Obstructing or Impeding

In any sport, a foul is a violation of that sport?s code of conduct, and each sport punishes foul play in its own unique way. Soccer defines a foul as an unfair action a player commits against an opposing player or the opposing team during the course of a match. The punishment varies depending upon the nature of the infraction, but will be either a direct or indirect free kick. To be a foul, the act must occur on the field, while the ball is in play. Otherwise, it may constitute a misconduct, and may even warrant a caution or send-off, but it will not be a foul.

For some minor infractions the punishment is an indirect kick. This means that at least two players must touch the ball before the kicking team can score. These fouls are often called ?technical fouls? because most are not the direct result of foul play, but are violations of some procedural rules designed to keep play flowing or prevent more serious fouls from happening. One such ?technical foul? is the offense of impeding an opponent?commonly known as ?obstructing.?

Impeding an opponent
Soccer players often get in each other?s way during the normal run of play. Sometimes, though, players will intentionally block their opponents from running after the ball or moving into tactically important space on the field. The offense of ?impeding an opponent? involves the deliberate use of the body to interfere with the other player?s movement in order to delay his progress, and is punished with an indirect kick. This foul often occurs when a player senses that a speeding opponent will beat him to the ball, or anticipates a potentially troublesome pass into open space. By stepping in front of the opponent and blocking his progress, the player hopes to slow his opponent down so that a teammate can collect the ball. If this action causes more than incidental physical contact with the blocked player, it may constitute a ?charging? or ?holding? foul, rather than ?impeding.?

A player within ?playing distance? of the ball may legally block his opponent?s pathway to it without being guilty of a foul. This is known as ?shielding,? and involves the use of the body to keep possession. Playing distance will vary depending on the speed of the players and the ball, and ultimately rests with the referee?s judgment, but the shielding player does not actually have to touch the ball to shield it legally from the other side. Shepherding the ball out of bounds or towards the keeper is a recognized and quite legitimate tactic, as long as the player guarding the ball stays within playing distance.

Jeffrey Caminsky, a veteran public prosecutor in Michigan, specializes in the appellate practice of criminal law and writes on a wide range of topics. Both his science fiction adventure novel The Star Dancers, the first volume in the Guardians of Peace (tm) science fiction adventure series, and The Referee?s Survival Guide, a book on soccer officiating, are published by New Alexandria Press, http://www.newalexandriapress.com.