How To Improve Your Soccer Bets

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly forecasts.

The statistical methods described in this set of articles should help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.

In this article we will be describing the Footyforecast method. The Footyforecast method was originally developed for the English Football Pools and attempts to eliminate those matches that will not be draws, leaving you with a shorter list of matches from which to choose your 8 from 11. This method was introduced to the world in 1999 on the original Footyforecast website (now 1X2Monster.com). This method is similar to the Simple Sequence method which is described in another of our articles in this series.

Here are the basic rules?

For each team work out the following,
1. Work out the total number of points obtained for the last N games.
2. Work out the maximum number of possible points for the last N games.
3. Divide the total number of points obtained by the maximum available and multiply by 100.
4. Calculate the forecast value.

In (1) and (2) above N games could be all the home games for the home side and all the away games for the away side. Alternatively N could be the last N games including all home and away games for a team.

The forecast value is calculated like this...

HOMEPOINTS = number of points for home team from last N games

AWAYPOINTS = number of points for away team from last N games

HOMEVAL = (HOMEPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

AWAYVAL = (AWAYPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

FORECAST = (HOMEVAL + (100 - AWAYVAL)) / 2

To calculate the possible outcome of a match based on the Footyforecast method the value is compared with the following...

1. A forecast value of 50 = a draw.
2. A value between 50 and 100 gives an increasing chance of a home win the closer to 100.
3. A value between 50 and 0 gives an increasing chance of an away win the closer to 0.

There are a few variables to consider, for example the number of matches to use and whether to use all matches or just home for home side and just away for away side to name but two. You may wish to experiment with these values.

By plotting actual resulting draws against the forecast it is possible to generate two threshold values, one for away wins and one for home wins, any values in-between these thresholds are likely draws. All matches outside these thresholds will be less likely to be draws. For example a value of 40 or less for away wins and a value of 60 or more for home wins. This would mean any matches falling between 41 and 59 may be draws. What this method does, with careful tuning by the user is to eliminate many matches which will not be draws giving you a short list to choose from. This method is best used where an English Pools Plan is to be used.

Here is a worked example?

The values shown are the points gained by the team for each game in a sequence of four recent matches, you of course could choose more games to base your calculations on. West Ham
H4 = 3 (oldest match)
H3 = 1
H2 = 1
H1 = 0 (most recent match)v Leeds Utd
A4 = 1 (oldest match)
A3 = 3
A2 = 0
A1 = 3 (most recent match)

Using only home games for home side and only away games for away side...

FFPHome = ((3 + 1 + 1 + 0) / 12) * 100 = 42
FFPAway = ((1 + 3 + 0 + 3) / 12) * 100 = 59
FFPForcast = (42 + (100 - 59)) / 2 = 42

If our threshold values are 40 and 60 then for this match the prediction lies in the expected draw region and at the lower end meaning that if it is not a draw the most likely other outcome would be an away win. This may be interpreted as an X2 prediction, i.e. draw or away win, which some bookies will accept as a bet.

Now it?s your turn?

Here is a list of all the articles in this series?

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Rateform Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Win Draw Loss Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Score Prediction Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Superiority Method

Malcolm Nossiter is the owner of http://www.1x2monster.com and http://www.footyforecast.com. He has been providing hundreds of 1X2 tips every week since 1999. Please visit 1x2monster.com for a fountain of information on soccer betting.

The World Soccer

INTRODUCTION:
I studied drawing at scool for many years, but I did not like it very much. My favourite subject at school were the olympic sports. I remember when I was a child and I played soccer with my friends. My best memory was when El Salvador,a small Central American country, qualified at the World Cup in 1982.I did not think ?ES? defeat Mexico, sixth place in the FIFA World Championship in 1970.

Between 1978 and 1989, El Salvador had one of the worst civil war in the modern history of Latin America.Unfortunately, more than 70,000 people were killed by anti-communist dictatorships and marxist rebels.

Certainly, I was a big fan of Salvadoran soccer. I once said: ?ES ganar? el Mundial ( El Salvador will be win the FIFA Soccer World 1982..!).However, the only thing that I clearly remember is that Hungary beat El Salvador 10-1 in the World Cup in Spain?Good Bye ES?!

Like many people, I think that soccer is ?passion? in the world since 1910. When Cameroon, ex French colony in Africa, won its first gold medal at the XXVII Summer Olympics Games in Australia (2000)?Yaound?, the capital city of Cameroon, was carnival for days.Cameroon was the second African country to win the gold olympic?

Unfortunately, Liberia was the nightmare of the Third World?From 1980 to 2005, more than 180,000 people were killed by dictatorships and AIDS?Currently, the poverty is a plague?Its percapita income of $ 80 a year is one of the worst in the World History. Hundreds of thousands of Liberian people fled the country. Like neighboring Sierra Leone, the African country has one of the highest number of orphans in the Africa in relation to its population.

Fortunately, Liberia is home to George Manneh Oppong Ousman Weah, one of the World`s most famous and charismatic players. In 1995 the FIFA selected George Weah as the best footballer of the Year.Certainly, he became a ?World Star? in the 1990s.Like Iman (former super-model from Somalia) and Dikembe Mutombo (basketball player from the Democratic Republic of Congo), George Weah is an icon in the African continent. Since then, he made a great contribution to Liberian human development. Currently, George Weah is UNICEF Goodwill Ambassador. He was national team captain for many years, but his country did not qualifity for the FIFA Football World. Ironically, Liberia was not one of the best teams of Africa in the 20th Century.

In 1994 Bolivia`s qualification for the finals was one of the surprises in the Third World sport. Under the leadership of Marco Etcheverry, Bolivia beat Brazil 2-0 in the Pre-World Cup in La Paz, Bolivia`s capital. I remember that Etcheverry, best known for his nickname ?El Diablo?, was the idol of millions of Bolivians.It was one of the greatest sporting moments in Bolivian history since 1978. At that time, Bolivia, under the leaderships of Guadalupe Ya?ez, qualified for the FIBA Women`s World Championship in Seoul, South Korea?s capital.

In my opinion, the FIFA World Championship is a world without frontiers. Ferenc Puskas, was born on April, 1926, in Budapest, Hungary, made his debut in the friendly against Austria at the age of only fifteen?In the past Century, Puskas represented both Hungary, a former communist State, and Spain.At the time, Santamaria played for Uruguay and Spain. Traditionally American players have Latin American and African roots: Hugo Perez (El Salvador), Tab Ramos (Uruguay), Claudio Reyna (Argentina), Josmer Altidore (Haiti) and Freddy Addu (Ghana). Today Gerald Asamoah, was born in Accra (Ghana), is one of the best footballers in Germany at the moment. While Alex (Alessandro) Santos, was born in Brazil, is a Japanese player.Santos played many times for Japan, including appearances at the 2006 World Cup in Germany.

Personally, I think that this Century will be an era of ?Sports Miracles? in the Third World. Cote D`Ivoire, best known as Ivory Coast, qualified for the FIFA Soccer World 2006?Angola made its debut in Germany?Trinidad-Tobago made its debut in the World Cup?Paraguay won the silver medal in football in the 2004 Summer Olympic Games in Athens.

CHRONOLOGY:
1930: FIFA World Cup in Montevideo, the capital city of Uruguay, one of the most development countries in the 1930s.The final ranking:1-Uruguay,2-Argentina, 3-Yugoslavia,4-USA,5-Chile, 6-Brazil,7-France,8-Paraguay,9-Romania, 10-Peru, 11-Belgium, 12-Bolivia, 13-Mexico.

1934: World Cup in Rome. Uruguay did not participate. The final ranking:1-Italy, Czechoslovakia,Germany, Austria, Spain, Hungary, Sweden, Switzerland, Romania, Argentina, France, Holland, Brazil, Egypt, Belgium and the United States.

1938:World Cup in France.The final ranking:1-Italy, Hungary,Brazil,Sweden,Czechoslovakia,Switzerland,Cuba,France,Romania,Germany,Norway,Poland,Belgium,Holland,Netherlands Indies.

1950:FIFA World Cup in Brazil. In Rio, the host lost the final 2-1 to Uruguay. Brazil was the big favourite? Uruguay had its second World Cup!

1954:World Cup in Switzerland.The final ranking:1-West Germany,Hungary,Austria,Uruguay,Switzerland,Brazil,England,Yugoslavia,France,Italy,Turkey,Belgium,Mexico,Czechoslovakia,Scotland,Korea.

1958: World Cup in Sweden?The final ranking:1-Brazil, Sweden, France, West Germany, Wales, USSR, Northern Ireland, Yugoslavia,Czechoslovakia,Hungary,England,Paraguay, Argentina, Scotland,Austria and Mexico.

1962:World Cup in Santiago de Chile?Certainly, the people of Brazil produce the World`s best coffee, but also the best soccer?The final ranking:1-Brazil,Czechoslovakia, Chile, Yugoslavia, Hungary, West Germany,USSR, England, Italy, Argentina, Mexico, Spain, Uruguay, Colombia, Bulgaria and Switzerland.

1966: World Cup in London,UK?The final ranking: 1-England, West Germany, Portugal, USSR, Argentina, Hungary, Uruguay, North Korea, Italy, Spain, Mexico, Brazil?

1970:Brazil won the FIFA World Cup on June 27th in Mexico City. The final ranking: Brazil, Italy, West Germany, Uruguay,USSR, Mexico, Peru, England, Sweden, Belgium, Romania, Israel, Bulgaria, Morocco, Czechoslovakia and ES.

1974:World Cup in West Germany?After Zaire, today`s Democratic Republic of Congo, qualified for the FIFA World Championship, a legal holiday was declared by Mobutu S?s? Seko Kuku Ngbendu Wa zan Banga, tyrannical president of the African country??Haitian footballers sometimes use the language ?creole? during games to confuse rivals? Brazil and WGermany were the obvious favorites.The final ranking:1-West Germany, Holland, Poland, Brazil, Sweden, Argentina, East Germany, Yugoslavia, Bulgaria, Italy, Scotland, Australia, Chile,Uruguay, Haiti and Zaire.

1978: World Cup in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The final ranking:1-Argentina, Holland,Brazil, Italy, West Germany, Poland,Austria, Peru, Tunisia, Spain, Scotland, France, Sweden, Iran, Hungary and Mexico.

1982: For first time, there were 24 teams. FIFA World Cup in Spain. Italy won the trophy. The ranking final:1-Italy, West Germany, Poland, France, Brazil, England, USSR, Austria, Northern Ireland, Belgium, Argentina, Spain, Algeria,Hungary. Scotland, Yugoslavia,Cameroon,Honduras,Czechoslovakia,Peru, Kuwait, Chile, New Zealand, ES.

1986: World Cup in Mexico. The final ranking:1-Argentina, West Germany, France, Belgium, Brazil, Mexico, Spain, England, Denmark, USSR, Morocco, Italy, Paraguay, Poland, Bulgaria, Uruguay, Portugal, Hungary, Scotland, South Korea, Northern Ireland, Algeria, Irak and Canada.

1990:World Cup In Italy.The final ranking:1-West Germany, Argentina, Italy, England, Czechoslovakia, Yugoslavia, Ireland, Cameroon,Netherlands, Brazil, Belgium, Spain, Romania, Colombia, Uruguay,CR,Egypt,Austria,Scotland, USSR,Sweden, South Korea,USA and the United Arab Emirates.

1994: World Cup in the United States. The final ranking:1-Brazil, Italy, Sweden, Bulgaria, Germany, Romania, Netherlands, Spain,Nigeria, Argentina, Belgium, Saudi Arabia, Mexico, USA, Switzerland, Ireland, Norway, Russia, Colombia, South Korea, Bolivia, Cameroon, Morocco and Greece.

1998:World Cup in Paris. The final ranking:1-France,Brazil,Croatia, Netherlands, Argentina,Italy, Germany, Denmark, England, Yugoslavia,Romania,Nigeria, Mexico, Paraguay, Norway, Chile, Spain, Morocco, Belgium, Iran, Colombia, Jamaica, Austria, South Africa, Cameroon, Tunisia, Scotland, Saudi Arabia, Bulgaria, South Korea, Japan and the United States.

2002:World Cup in Japan and South Korea?1-Brazil, 2-Germany, 3-Turkey,4-South Korea?SKorea has one of the best sporting infrastructure in the world?

2006: World Cup in Germany?1-Italy, 2-France,3-Germany,4-Portugal?

REFERENCES: -Laity,Paul. ?Costa de Marfil Brujer?a: que forma de ganar?, National Geographic,MexicoDF, junio 2006

-Matthews,Meter.Whitaker?s Almanac Internacional Sports Records and Results 1998-9, London:The Stationery Office, London, 1998.

-Vickery,Tim. ?Paraguay:Rags and Riches?,World Soccer Special Edition, London, Summer 2006

-1976 Almanaque Mundial Deportivo, Editorial Am?rica, Panama, 1975

-1977 Almanaque Mundial Deportivo,Editorial Am?rica, Panama, 1976

-2001 The World Almanac, World Almanac Books, New Jersey,2000

ALEJANDRO GUEVARA ONOFRE:I am a writer about Third World issues (human rights, biographies, culture, history, olympic sports, democracy, women?s rights).My hobbies and interests are writing essays, going to the gym, browsing the Internet, Foreign Politics, learning about cultures, reading (my favourite writer is Juan Gasparini from Argentina), cooking Peruvian food, listening to American and British Music (my favourite singer is Barry White). My personal motto is "the future is for those people who believe in the beauty of their dreams" by Eleanor Roosevelt...My heroes are Frida Kahlo (Mexican painter), Mpule Kwelagobe (ex Miss Universe and currently Anti-AIDS activist), Bono, Dian Fossey, Jimmy Carter, Oprah Winfrey,Hernando de Soto, Javier Perez de Cuellar and Mario Vargas Llosa...

Tryouts Soccer - What Coaches Are Looking For

Players find it very difficult to understand that when it comes to tryouts soccer, what are the things that a coach takes into consideration to assess the ability and skills of a player. Well, there are several things that a coach has to figure out in order to judge if you fit the team or not.

Technical Aspects Of The Game

The first in the priority is to check how efficient you are in playing the game. They look at all the technical aspects of the game, such as ball control, passing, dribbling, heading, finishing etc. if you want to maximize your chances for selection, it is very important for you to have the ability to play a ball under control, that too, instantly and smoothly.

Passing the ball is equally important, and this includes both short and long-distance passing. In order to be efficient in the passing skill, the players need to be perfect in heading, bending, chipping etc.

Your dribbling skills come next. You must be efficient enough to feint, burst past opponents, and use variations in directions and speed depending upon the circumstances. What is more, your dribbling skill must be sharp enough to break through the packed defensive lines from the opponent team.

Last, but not the least, the players must be accurate in shooting the ball and converting the opportunities into scoring the goals for their team. However, in tryouts, it is not just about scoring the goals; the coaches will judge you on the basis of your accuracy and sharpness in shooting the ball.

Tactical Aspect Of The Game

In the field, a player has to make quick decisions whether they should pass the ball, dribble the same or go for shooting and much more. What is more, the quickness in decision must be incorporated with accuracy in action.

For example, the player, who is not in possession of the ball, must be able to decide quickly when he should come for a close support and when he should stay away. Likewise, the player who is in possession of the ball must have good peripheral vision so that he could recognize the right moment to pass the ball to the other side of the field.

Apart from the technical and tactical aspects of the game, one more thing is there that coaches consider during tryouts soccer - this is the physical aspect of the players, such as endurance, speed, agility, strength etc.

Andre Botelho is a recognized authority on the subject of tryouts soccer. His web site, Youth Soccer Drills, provides a wealth of informative soccer articles, resources and tips for soccer coaches, parents and players.