How To Improve Your Soccer Bets

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly forecasts.

The statistical methods described in this set of articles should help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.

In this article we will be describing the Footyforecast method. The Footyforecast method was originally developed for the English Football Pools and attempts to eliminate those matches that will not be draws, leaving you with a shorter list of matches from which to choose your 8 from 11. This method was introduced to the world in 1999 on the original Footyforecast website (now 1X2Monster.com). This method is similar to the Simple Sequence method which is described in another of our articles in this series.

Here are the basic rules?

For each team work out the following,
1. Work out the total number of points obtained for the last N games.
2. Work out the maximum number of possible points for the last N games.
3. Divide the total number of points obtained by the maximum available and multiply by 100.
4. Calculate the forecast value.

In (1) and (2) above N games could be all the home games for the home side and all the away games for the away side. Alternatively N could be the last N games including all home and away games for a team.

The forecast value is calculated like this...

HOMEPOINTS = number of points for home team from last N games

AWAYPOINTS = number of points for away team from last N games

HOMEVAL = (HOMEPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

AWAYVAL = (AWAYPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

FORECAST = (HOMEVAL + (100 - AWAYVAL)) / 2

To calculate the possible outcome of a match based on the Footyforecast method the value is compared with the following...

1. A forecast value of 50 = a draw.
2. A value between 50 and 100 gives an increasing chance of a home win the closer to 100.
3. A value between 50 and 0 gives an increasing chance of an away win the closer to 0.

There are a few variables to consider, for example the number of matches to use and whether to use all matches or just home for home side and just away for away side to name but two. You may wish to experiment with these values.

By plotting actual resulting draws against the forecast it is possible to generate two threshold values, one for away wins and one for home wins, any values in-between these thresholds are likely draws. All matches outside these thresholds will be less likely to be draws. For example a value of 40 or less for away wins and a value of 60 or more for home wins. This would mean any matches falling between 41 and 59 may be draws. What this method does, with careful tuning by the user is to eliminate many matches which will not be draws giving you a short list to choose from. This method is best used where an English Pools Plan is to be used.

Here is a worked example?

The values shown are the points gained by the team for each game in a sequence of four recent matches, you of course could choose more games to base your calculations on. West Ham
H4 = 3 (oldest match)
H3 = 1
H2 = 1
H1 = 0 (most recent match)v Leeds Utd
A4 = 1 (oldest match)
A3 = 3
A2 = 0
A1 = 3 (most recent match)

Using only home games for home side and only away games for away side...

FFPHome = ((3 + 1 + 1 + 0) / 12) * 100 = 42
FFPAway = ((1 + 3 + 0 + 3) / 12) * 100 = 59
FFPForcast = (42 + (100 - 59)) / 2 = 42

If our threshold values are 40 and 60 then for this match the prediction lies in the expected draw region and at the lower end meaning that if it is not a draw the most likely other outcome would be an away win. This may be interpreted as an X2 prediction, i.e. draw or away win, which some bookies will accept as a bet.

Now it?s your turn?

Here is a list of all the articles in this series?

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Rateform Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Win Draw Loss Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Score Prediction Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Superiority Method

Malcolm Nossiter is the owner of http://www.1x2monster.com and http://www.footyforecast.com. He has been providing hundreds of 1X2 tips every week since 1999. Please visit 1x2monster.com for a fountain of information on soccer betting.

Soccer Rules-Fouls- Tripping

The rules of soccer list ten offenses for which the punishment is a direct free. This means that the fouled team can score directly from the kick that serves as punishment for the foul. If committed by a defender inside his own penalty area, this direct free kick becomes a penalty kick. These fouls all punish acts on the field that the sport considers to be unfair or unsafe.

Most acts are fouls only if committed carelessly, recklessly, or with excessive force. Most acts on a soccer field are fouls only by degree, and become fouls only if done in an unfair manner. Players can bump into each other while running, or push past each while each is trying to avoid a collision. They may tussle over the ball, or leap to head a long pass and collide another player who is trying to do the same thing. They may kick at the ball and narrowly miss kicking their opponent?s shin. All of these actions are just part of soccer, where most bodily contact is quite incidental to the players? attempts to win the ball and passes quite uneventfully during the course of the game.

Inevitably, though, a player will mistime a kick, misjudge a jump, or overestimate the body?s ability to follow whatever instructions are coming from the brain, and those actions will exceed the bounds of fair play. Nobody can distinguish between fair and foul contact from a cold narrative of course, but referees will be watching particular aspects of each play to decide whether an action is a foul.

Tripping
Players often trip on a soccer field, even without the help of foul play. They can trip over the ball, over uneven ground, or sometimes over each other. But where one player is tripping through no fault of an opponent, there will simply be no foul to call. The foul is tripping an opponent; tripping all by oneself is just being clumsy.

But where one player isn?t being careful in playing the ball?maybe raising a foot during a tackle, or extending a leg as an opponent is running by?then it is not a case of someone simply being a klutz. In this case, the player?s stumble comes about because of the careless actions of someone else, and the trip is the fault of the player who is being careless, and the referee will respond by calling the foul.

Tripping can also take another form that can be quite dangerous. Sometimes called ?bridging? or ?making a back,? this kind of trip takes place when a player jumps to head the ball while an opponent moves to undercut him, often by backing into him. Referees will sometimes mistake this play and call the leaping player for a ?jumping? foul when it is really the fault of the player on the ground. Even when done unintentionally, this play can cause serious injury if the jumping player lands off-balance, and if done deliberately, it often results in a yellow card.

Jeffrey Caminsky, a veteran public prosecutor in Michigan, specializes in the appellate practice of criminal law and writes on a wide range of topics. Both his science fiction adventure novel The Star Dancers, the first volume in the Guardians of Peace (tm) science fiction adventure series, and The Referee?s Survival Guide, a book on soccer officiating, are published by New Alexandria Press, http://www.newalexandriapress.com.

Soccer Training Drills

When it comes to soccer training drills, it is very important for the coach to teach the players about how to make the ball do what the players want. Yes, that is possible, but through extensive training and only an expert coach can help the team achieve this impressive skill.

Go In A Cycle

The coaches should teach the players to go in a cycle. This means left and then right foot, then right thigh and then left thigh, and then hitting the ball up to their head and back down to their right foot and then left and so on.

You can teach them how to make various cycles. They can do so by choosing where the ball goes, and not just keeping the ball up in the air, but manipulating the ball on their terms.

The expert coach makes his team learn that it does not really matter much that how many times the players can juggle. What really matters is whether the players are capable enough to make the ball go where you want it.

Manipulating The Ball Even More

Once the players are well versed with the above step, the coaches can teach them the advance steps, such as manipulating the ball even more. In this step, the players are supposed to aim for kicking the ball away from them to the right.

After that, they should kick the ball away from them to the left. They should be able to do so at a slight angle in the air, almost as they are faking going to the right and then the left but all in the air.

Here, the training of the coaches will be on test because the players need to lean their body to the side in which they are kicking the ball.

Once, you see significant improvement in the team regarding the above two steps, you can go ahead and teach the players how to try walking and juggling with the ball.

Soccer training drills is not an easy cake, but when you keep certain things as discussed above in mind during the training session, you can make things easier.

Andre Botelho is a recognized authority on the subject of soccer training drills. His web site, Youth Soccer Drills, provides a wealth of informative soccer articles, resources and tips for soccer coaches, parents and players.