How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Rateform Method

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly forecasts.

The statistical methods described in this set of articles will help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.

In this article we will be describing the well known Rateform method. The Rateform method has its origins in The Rating Of Chessplayers by Professor Elo, and from the Punters Revenge by Tony Drapkin and Richard Forsyth. The basis of the Rateform method is that each of the two teams taking part in a match is given a point score that is based on their current form. Although this sounds very simplistic, and it is, its calculation is a little more involved.

Here are the basic rules?

1. Each team is given a point score representing their current form.

2. At the start of the season each team is given 1000 points.

3. When a match is played both teams contribute some of their points towards a kitty.

4. The home team supply more points into the kitty than the away team. This is done to reflect the home teams advantage of playing at home.

5. The winning team takes the kitty, unless the result is a draw in which case both sides share the points. In the case of a draw the away side gains points and the home side looses points.

Here is how a typical calculation is made?

home team points total = HTPOINTS
away team points total = ATPOINTS
home team contribution to kitty = HTKITTY = 7% of HTPOINTS
away team contribution to kitty = ATKITTY = 5% of ATPOINTS
the kitty therefore = KITTY = HTKITTY + ATKITTY

if the result is a HOME WIN then
home team receives KITTY points added to HTPOINTS
away team receives zero points added to ATPOINTS and looses its 5% contribution to the kitty

if result is an AWAY WIN then
home team receives zero points added to HTPOINTS and looses its 7% contribution to the kitty
away team receives KITTY points added to ATPOINTS

if the result is a DRAW then
home team receives KITTY / 2 points added to HTPOINTS
away team receives KITTY / 2 points added to ATPOINTS

Let?s look at a simple example of how you could apply this?

To calculate the possible outcome of a match based on rateform the away rateform is subtracted from the home rateform and the difference is compared against set values for home, away and draw possibilities.

For example we could make our set values as follows:

AWAY WIN ß -250 DRAW 150 à HOME WIN

RATEFORM DIFFERENCE = HOME TEAM RATEFORM ? AWAY TEAM RATEFORM

So, if the RATEFORM DIFFERENCE is less than -250 then the match is likely to be an away win, if the RATEFORM DIFFERENCE is greater than 150 then the match is likely to be a home win, and if the RATEFORM DIFFERENCE lies between then the outcome is most likely to be a draw.

Now it?s your turn?

Of course you may choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may come up with better values to use. You could also decide not to reset each teams points to 1000 at the start of the season but instead let them carry over into the next season. Another alternative would be to have a rolling calculation where you calculate the rateform for each team on say the last six months.

If you have the necessary skills you could go away and build your own spreadsheet of data or even write a piece of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Rateform method to your data. Or, if you?re lazy like me, you could grab some free software that already does this for you. If this last option is for you then visit 1X2Monster where you can download a FREE copy of the Footyforecast 2.0 software which utilises all of the statistical methods described in this series of articles. You will also be able to download FREE weekly database updates for your software, how cool is that?

Here is a list of all the articles in this series?

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Rateform Method.
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method.
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Win Draw Loss Method.
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence Method.
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Score Prediction Method.
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Superiority Method.

Malcolm Nossiter is the owner of 1x2monster.com and footyforecast.com. He has been providing hundreds of 1X2 tips every week since 1999. Please visit 1x2monster.com for a fountain of information on soccer betting.

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Score Prediction Method

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly forecasts.

The statistical methods described in this set of articles will help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.

In this article we will be describing the well known Score Prediction method. The Score Prediction method uses a teams goal performances over a specified period of time in order to predict the score of the game concerned.

Here are the basic rules?
As an example of the Score Prediction method this is how Footyforecast and 1X2Monster handle this method. This is an example of a match and each teams respective goal count for the last five games:

home team 3-3 1-0 4-1 0-2 2-1
away team 0-1 2-2 0-3 6-0 1-3

We can work out some figures from this as follows:

home teams goals scored for = HGF = 3 + 1 + 4 + 0 + 2 = 10
away teams goals scored for = AGF = 1 + 2 + 3 + 0 + 3 = 9
home teams goals against = HGA = 3 + 0 + 1 + 2 + 1 = 7
away teams goals against = AGA = 0 + 2 + 0 + 6 + 1 = 9

Now we can work out points for each team based on the goals they have scored and the goals they have had scored against them as follows:

home goal points = HGP = HGF + AGA = 10 + 9 = 19
away goals points = AGP = HGA + AGF = 7 + 9 = 16

And now we can get a difference:
goal points difference = GPD = HGP - AGP = 19 - 16 = 3

Now we could classify this as follows:
GPD => +2 then home win,
GPD =< -2 then away win
GPD -2 then draw.

These parameters are obviously fairly arbitrary but experience should allow you to tune them more carefully.

Now we must use the GPD and one of three tables.
Here are the tables...

Home WIn Score Prediction
HOME AWAY
HGSP GOALS AGSP >0 >11 >17 >26
>49.....6............0....1....2....3
>43.....5............0....1....2....3
>37.....4............0....1....2....3
>30.....3............0....1....2
>23.....2............0....1
>0.......1............0

Away WIn Score Prediction
AWAY HOME
AGSP GOALS HGSP >23 >18 >13 >0
>34.....5............3....2....1....0
>29.....4............3....2....1....0
>24.....3..................2....1....0
>18.....2..................2....1....0
>0.......1..................2....1....0

Draw Score Prediction
HOME + AWAY SCORE
....>44.........3-3
....>34.........2-2
....>24.........1-1
....>0...........0-0

Since our match has generated a home win prediction then we must use the HOME WIN SCORE PREDICTION table to obtain our score prediction. To do this we need to calculate another parameter, that of home goal score points as follows:

HGSP = HGP + all goals scored by home team of 3 or more in a match + all goals against the away side of 3 or more.

therefore HGSP = 19 + 7 + 6 = 32

Now do the same for the away team:

AGSP = AGP + all goals scored by away team of 3 or more in a match + all goals against the home side of 3 or more.

therefore AGSP = 16 + 6 + 3 = 25

So, in the home win score prediction table we go to HOME > 30 which gives us 3 goals for the home team and go to AWAY > 17 giving us two goals for the away team therefore the result is predicted as a 3-2 home win.

Now it?s your turn?

Of course you may choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may come up with better values to use.

If you have the necessary skills you could go away and build your own spreadsheet of data or even write a piece of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Score Prediction method to your data. Or, if you?re lazy like me, you could grab some free software that already does this for you. If this last option is for you then visit 1X2Monster where you can download a FREE copy of the Footyforecast 2.0 software which utilises all of the statistical methods described in this series of articles. You will also be able to download FREE weekly database updates for your software, how cool is that?

Here is a list of all the articles in this series?

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Rateform Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Win Draw Loss Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Score Prediction Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Superiority Method

Malcolm Nossiter is the owner of 1x2monster.com and footyforecast.com. He has been providing hundreds of 1X2 tips every week since 1999. Please visit 1x2monster.com for a fountain of information on soccer betting.

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly forecasts.

The statistical methods described in this set of articles should help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.

In this article we will be describing the Footyforecast method. The Footyforecast method was originally developed for the English Football Pools and attempts to eliminate those matches that will not be draws, leaving you with a shorter list of matches from which to choose your 8 from 11. This method was introduced to the world in 1999 on the original Footyforecast website (now http://1X2Monster.com). This method is similar to the Simple Sequence method which is described in another of our articles in this series.

Here are the basic rules?

For each team work out the following,
1.Work out the total number of points obtained for the last N games.
2.Work out the maximum number of possible points for the last N games.
3.Divide the total number of points obtained by the maximum available and multiply by 100.
4.Calculate the forecast value.

In (1) and (2) above N games could be all the home games for the home side and all the away games for the away side. Alternatively N could be the last N games including all home and away games for a team.

The forecast value is calculated like this...

HOMEPOINTS = number of points for home team from last N games

AWAYPOINTS = number of points for away team from last N games

HOMEVAL = (HOMEPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

AWAYVAL = (AWAYPOINTS / (POINTSFORWIN * N)) *100

FORECAST = (HOMEVAL + (100 - AWAYVAL)) / 2

To calculate the possible outcome of a match based on the Footyforecast method the value is compared with the following...

1. A forecast value of 50 = a draw.
2. A value between 50 and 100 gives an increasing chance of a home win the closer to 100.
3. A value between 50 and 0 gives an increasing chance of an away win the closer to 0.

There are a few variables to consider, for example the number of matches to use and whether to use all matches or just home for home side and just away for away side to name but two. You may wish to experiment with these values.

By plotting actual resulting draws against the forecast it is possible to generate two threshold values, one for away wins and one for home wins, any values in-between these thresholds are likely draws. All matches outside these thresholds will be less likely to be draws. For example a value of 40 or less for away wins and a value of 60 or more for home wins. This would mean any matches falling between 41 and 59 may be draws.

What this method does, with careful tuning by the user is to eliminate many matches which will not be draws giving you a short list to choose from. This method is best used where an English Pools Plan is to be used.

Here is a worked example?

The values shown are the points gained by the team for each game in a sequence of four recent matches, you of course could choose more games to base your calculations on.

West Ham
H4 = 3 (oldest match)
H3 = 1
H2 = 1
H1 = 0 (most recent match)

Leeds Utd
A4 = 1 (oldest match)
A3 = 3
A2 = 0
A1 = 3 (most recent match)

Using only home games for home side and only away games for away side...

FFPHome = ((3 + 1 + 1 + 0) / 12) * 100 = 42
FFPAway = ((1 + 3 + 0 + 3) / 12) * 100 = 59
FFPForcast = (42 + (100 - 59)) / 2 = 42

If our threshold values are 40 and 60 then for this match the prediction lies in the expected draw region and at the lower end meaning that if it is not a draw the most likely other outcome would be an away win. This may be interpreted as an X2 prediction, i.e. draw or away win, which some bookies will accept as a bet.

Now it?s your turn?

Of course you may choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may come up with better values to use. You may also choose to use all home and away games played by each team in your calculations instead of just home games for the home team and away games for the away team. You may choose to have different thresholds than those shown above. You may also find it beneficial to plot actual results against the Footyforecast method predictions to see how many actual draws fall in the away win, draw, and home win prediction zones.

If you have the necessary skills you could go away and build your own spreadsheet of data or even write a piece of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Footyforecast method to your data. Or, if you?re lazy like me, you could grab some free software that already does this for you. If this last option is for you then visit 1X2Monster where you can download a FREE copy of the Footyforecast 2.0 software which utilises all of the statistical methods described in this series of articles. You will also be able to download FREE weekly database updates for your software, how cool is that?

Here is a list of all the articles in this series?

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Rateform Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Win Draw Loss Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Score Prediction Method
How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Superiority Method

Malcolm Nossiter is the owner of 1x2monster.com and footyforecast.com. He has been providing hundreds of 1X2 tips every week since 1999. Please visit 1x2monster.com for a fountain of information on soccer betting.

The Soccer Ball ? An Ageless Entertainment

It is said that thousands of years ago, South American Indians already kicked an elasticized ball for fun. They used things such as heads, skulls, stitched up cloth and pig or cow bladders. The Chinese played "tsu chu" where animal skin balls were dribbled through gaps in a net stretched between two poles. The actual soccer ball only came after a few thousand years. Ancient Egyptian rites are said to have similarities with soccer, and both the ancient Greeks and Romans also played a game that entailed carrying and kicking a ball.

The more irregular the bladders used as balls were, the more unpredictable was its behavior. After Charles Goodyear patented vulcanized rubber, he designed the first rubber soccer ball (football). It was only in the twentieth century that rubber bladders were began to be used in most balls. In 1862 Lindon developed one of the first rubber bladders for balls, probably inspired because of the ill effects of blowing animal bladders, after his wife died of lung disease.

The soccer ball is an air filled sphere with a circumference of 68-70 cm, weight 210-250 g, covered in leather or other suitable material. Most of the modern balls are stitched with 32 panels of water proof leather or plastic and the colors are usually black and white. Over the years balls have become lighter. Older Balls were usually stitched with 18 oblong leather panels. The problem is that these balls were very heavy. Though in the last world cup in 2006 the ball is stitched with 14 panels and the colour isn?t the usual black and white. By reducing the amount of panels used the more accurate a shot with that ball will be, because with the fewer the amount of panels the more perfect the circumference becomes.

The black and white colors on the soccer ball were defined so that it could be seen better on monochrome televisions, but in cases like playing in the snow the soccer balls have different colours such as yellow or orange. The soccer ball used in the World Cup 2006 final is golden with white and black details. Some soccer ball brands are developing new technologies such as using foam as part of the composition of the ball or even having rings so that goalkeepers can determine the spin of the ball.

Nowadays there are many brands that make soccer balls, amongst which are the famous ones such as Adidas, Nike, Mitre, etc. About 80% of the association soccer balls are made in Pakistan, and 75% of these are made in the city of Sialkot.

As soccer is the most popular sport in the world you can find a soccer ball almost in every place on the planet. It doesn't matter if it?s called football, soccer, fussball, futebol or f?tbol, one will always find some soccer ball being kicked around, even in countries were the sport isn?t as popular as in Brazil, Argentina, England, or Germany. Soccer balls are even used in peace campaigns, with special games as on with team with players from Palestine and Israel, playing side by side in a same team united by the same soccer ball.

Get all the latest in Soccer know how from the one and only true source at http://www.SoccerDetails.com. Be sure to check our soccer ball pages.

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence Method

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets is a series of articles that describe some well known and well used statistical techniques that will help the soccer punter make more informed bets. Each of the techniques has its own advantages and disadvantages and using them in isolation will improve your chances of winning. However, together they will prove invaluable in your battle with the bookies. In each article we will describe in detail how a particular method works giving you enough information for you to go ahead and create your own forecasts. We will also give you information as to where you can already find websites that use this technique in comprising their weekly forecasts.

The statistical methods described in this set of articles will help you to arrive at a better decision about the match, or matches, that you are betting on.

In this article we will be describing the well known Simple Sequence method. The Simple Sequence method is not just a single method, there are many ways of devising a simple sequence method, and you could probably devise one of your own. The way the Simple Sequence method is implemented in the Footyforecast 2.0 software and on the 1X2Monster website is to use a weighting factor on each of a series of games.

Here are the basic rules...

A number of matches are used to look back at from the forecast date. So let's say our team has the following results (most recent on the right hand side):

W D L L W

This would give them the following points: 3 + 1 + 0 + 0 + 3 = 7

Now to take into account current form each is given a weighting factor, so the oldest match is multiplied by 1 up to the most recent match being multiplied by 5. Of course this will vary depending upon the number of matches you use, but for this example it gives us the following:

3*1 + 1*2 + 0*3 + 0*4 + 3*5 = 20 points

Now let's say the away team playing against the team above have the following record:

W W D D D

They will have: 3*1 + 3*2 + 1*3 + 1*4 + 1*5 = 21 points.

The points difference HOME v AWAY = 20 - 21 = -1.

Now, depending how you classify this it could represent an away win, i.e. all matches below a points difference of 0 = away win, or it could be classed as a draw.

Let's look at a simple example...

For our example we will use the last ten games played for each team. That's the last ten home games for the home side, and the last ten away games for the away side. The match is between Middlesbrough and Bolton Wanderers in the English Premiership played on 20th Jan 2007.

Middlesbrough

L L W W W D L D W W

This gives 0*1 + 0*2 + 3*3 + 3*4 + 3*5 + 1*6 + 0*7 + 1*8 + 3*9 + 3*10

This equals 0+0+9+12+15+6+0+8+27+30 = 107

Bolton

L W W W D L L W W L

This gives 0*1 + 3*2 + 3*3 + 3*4 + 1*5 + 0*6 + 0*7 + 3*8 + 3*9 + 0*10

this equals 0+6+9+12+5+0+0+24+27+0 = 83

Therefore the difference is

107 - 83 = +24

This could be determined as a home win but depending on your chosen threshold levels could be classed as a draw.

Now it's your turn...

Of course you may choose to use different values to those shown above and by experimenting you may come up with better values to use. You may also choose to use all home and away games played by each team in your calculations instead of just home games for the home team and away games for the away team. You may choose to have different thresholds than those shown above. You may also find it beneficial to plot actual results against the Simple Sequence method predictions to see how many actual draws fall in the away win, draw, and home win prediction zones.

If you have the necessary skills you could go away and build your own spreadsheet of data or even write a piece of software to take in results and fixtures and apply the Simple Sequence method to your data. Or, if you're lazy like me, you could grab some free software that already does this for you. If this last option is for you then visit 1X2Monster where you can download a FREE copy of the Footyforecast 2.0 software which utilises all of the statistical methods described in this series of articles. You will also be able to download FREE weekly database updates for your software, how cool is that?

Here is a list of all the articles in this series...

How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Rateform Method How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Footyforecast Method How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Win Draw Loss Method How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Simple Sequence Method How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Score Prediction Method How To Improve Your Soccer Bets Using The Superiority Method

Malcolm Nossiter is the owner of 1x2monster.com and footyforecast.com. He has been providing hundreds of 1X2 tips every week since 1999. Please visit 1x2monster.com for a fountain of information on soccer betting.

The Soccer Ball - An Ageless Entertainment

It is said that thousands of years ago, South American Indians already kicked an elasticized ball for fun. They used things such as heads, skulls, stitched up cloth and pig or cow bladders. The Chinese played "tsu chu" where animal skin balls were dribbled through gaps in a net stretched between two poles. The actual soccer ball only came after a few thousand years. Ancient Egyptian rites are said to have similarities with soccer, and both the ancient Greeks and Romans also played a game that entailed carrying and kicking a ball.

The more irregular the bladders used as balls were, the more unpredictable was its behavior. After Charles Goodyear patented vulcanized rubber, he designed the first rubber soccer ball (football). It was only in the twentieth century that rubber bladders were began to be used in most balls. In 1862 Lindon developed one of the first rubber bladders for balls, probably inspired because of the ill effects of blowing animal bladders, after his wife died of lung disease.

The soccer ball is an air filled sphere with a circumference of 68-70 cm, weight 210-250 g, covered in leather or other suitable material. Most of the modern balls are stitched with 32 panels of water proof leather or plastic and the colors are usually black and white. Over the years balls have become lighter. Older Balls were usually stitched with 18 oblong leather panels. The problem is that these balls were very heavy. Though in the last world cup in 2006 the ball is stitched with 14 panels and the colour isn't the usual black and white. By reducing the amount of panels used the more accurate a shot with that ball will be, because with the fewer the amount of panels the more perfect the circumference becomes.

The black and white colors on the soccer ball were defined so that it could be seen better on monochrome televisions, but in cases like playing in the snow the soccer balls have different colours such as yellow or orange. The soccer ball used in the World Cup 2006 final is golden with white and black details. Some soccer ball brands are developing new technologies such as using foam as part of the composition of the ball or even having rings so that goalkeepers can determine the spin of the ball.

Nowadays there are many brands that make soccer balls, amongst which are the famous ones such as Adidas, Nike, Mitre, etc. About 80% of the association soccer balls are made in Pakistan, and 75% of these are made in the city of Sialkot.

As soccer is the most popular sport in the world you can find a soccer ball almost in every place on the planet. It doesn't matter if it's called football, soccer, fussball, futebol or f?tbol, one will always find some soccer ball being kicked around, even in countries were the sport isn't as popular as in Brazil, Argentina, England, or Germany. Soccer balls are even used in peace campaigns, with special games as on with team with players from Palestine and Israel, playing side by side in a same team united by the same soccer ball.

Get all the latest in Soccer know how from the one and only true source at http://www.SoccerDetails.com. Be sure to check our soccer ball pages.